Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsFIU
- Q4 0:27FAUPEAVEY, Rafe 11 yd run (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)49–14
- Q4 6:02FAUDURANTE, Jovon 24 yd pass from JOHNSON, De (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)42–14
- Q4 8:35FAUWHYTE, Kerrith 6 yd run (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)35–14
- Q4 13:04FAUSINGLETARY, D 7 yd run (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)28–14
- Q3 4:50FAUDURANTE, Jovon 28 yd pass from JOHNSON, De (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)21–14
- Q3 8:47FIUSINGLETON, B. 19 yd pass from MORGAN, James (BORREGALES, J. kick)14–14
- Q2 4:27FAUSINGLETARY, D 4 yd run (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)14–7
- Q2 7:21FIUMALONEY, Austin 13 yd pass from MORGAN, James (BORREGALES, J. kick)7–7
- Q1 12:31FAUDevin Singletary 0 Yd Fumble Return (Vladimir Rivas Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassChris Robison 6/10, 90 YDS
- RushDevin Singletary 27 CAR, 184 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJovon Durante 4 REC, 55 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJames Morgan 18/32, 223 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushNapoleon Maxwell 7 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecBryce Singleton 5 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:50FAU +30%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Jovon Durante for 28 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
- Q3 8:47FIU +24%
James Morgan pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 19 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q2 4:27FAU +23%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
- Q2 7:21FIU +22%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 13 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q1 12:31FAU +18%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds Devin Singletary fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Devin Singletary for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
- Q4 13:04FAU +16%
Devin Singletary run for 7 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International?
Florida Atlantic 49, Florida International 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FAU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 596 | Total yards | 330 |
| 157 | Passing yards | 234 |
| 439 | Rushing yards | 96 |
| 30 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-8 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 10/16 | Comp/Att | 19/34 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 7.3 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 3-36 |
| 29:36 | Possession | 30:24 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:35 FIU go for it on 4th & 15 at FIU 34. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:27FAUPEAVEY, Rafe 11 yd run (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)49–14
- Q4 6:02FAUDURANTE, Jovon 24 yd pass from JOHNSON, De (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)42–14
- Q4 8:35FAUWHYTE, Kerrith 6 yd run (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)35–14
- Q4 13:04FAUSINGLETARY, D 7 yd run (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)28–14
- Q3 4:50FAUDURANTE, Jovon 28 yd pass from JOHNSON, De (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)21–14
- Q3 8:47FIUSINGLETON, B. 19 yd pass from MORGAN, James (BORREGALES, J. kick)14–14
- Q2 4:27FAUSINGLETARY, D 4 yd run (RIVAS, Vladimir kick)14–7
- Q2 7:21FIUMALONEY, Austin 13 yd pass from MORGAN, James (BORREGALES, J. kick)7–7
- Q1 12:31FAUDevin Singletary 0 Yd Fumble Return (Vladimir Rivas Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1494, FAU Elo 1441 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU -4.5 (63% to win) — 2.5 points clear of FIU's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#10 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #104 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Florida Atlantic leads 16–6 · 18% have been one-possession games
| FAU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.2 (#53) | CORE overall | -4.2 (#91) |
| +4 / +1 | offense / defense | +4 / +8 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.77 |
| 2.51 | allowed / drive | 2.28 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →