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Texas State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Sun Belt · 14-18 · AdjEM -1.4, 188 of 363 nationally.

2022-23 seasonthrough ratings as of 2023-04-0323 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2023-04-03

Every team →
AdjEM
-1.4188 of 363
AdjO
101.9171 of 363
AdjD
103.3201 of 363
AdjT
65.0351 of 363

Texas State went from +3.7 (#122) on 2022-11-06 to -1.4 (#188) on 2023-04-03, peaking at +3.7 (#122) on 2022-11-06.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2022-11-062023-04-03

Four factorsraw season rates · 32 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
48.2%294
TOV%
16.5%124
OREB%
29.8%80
FTA/FGA
32.5%134
Opp eFG%
50.9%200
Opp TOV%
17.4%137
DREB%
74.2%148
Opp FTA/FGA
41.7%344

Résumé14-18 · against the ratings of 2023-04-03

Schedule strength
-1.2182 of 363
Non-conference
-3.1289 of 363
Luck
-4.8%290 of 363
Wins above bubble
-12.0253 of 363
Quad 1
0-1
Quad 2
3-2
Quad 3
2-10
Quad 4
9-5

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players14 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Mason HarrellG3234.215.92.92.446.7%53.0%25.7%34.1%87.1%
Tyrel MorganF3129.08.86.11.549.2%51.1%18.6%20.0%63.1%
Drue DrinnonG3028.86.82.22.246.1%50.0%16.1%37.0%71.9%
Jordan MasonG3221.26.32.41.048.5%53.4%17.2%33.3%81.1%
Nate MartinF3021.68.04.80.851.8%57.5%20.6%0.0%75.0%
Nighael CeaserF2523.29.66.51.053.8%56.6%24.3%22.6%72.7%
Brandon DavisG3216.95.02.30.546.6%49.3%19.9%35.7%75.0%
Davion SykesG3413.33.52.40.345.5%48.3%17.4%0.0%66.7%
Brandon LoveF3412.03.91.80.353.7%51.2%19.7%—36.4%
Davion ColemanG3011.03.71.40.441.5%48.1%21.7%31.6%73.3%
Dylan DawsonG1423.34.91.41.041.1%43.2%15.1%29.1%66.7%
Tuongthach GatkekF1214.04.33.20.854.8%55.1%18.0%0.0%55.6%
Dalen WhitlockG81.60.00.10.00.0%0.0%8.3%0.0%—
Nate LacewellF25.53.51.00.075.0%59.3%43.5%100.0%25.0%

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games14-18

“Ours” is our projected margin for Texas State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-07@Washington StateQ1#66L 61-83-8.0
11-12@Rhode IslandQ4#256W 70-66-0.4
11-17@UTSAQ4#305L 56-61+8.6
11-21@CaliforniaQ4#293W 59-55+2.4
11-25nSouthern UtahQ3#120W 78-65-2.3
11-26nHawai'iQ3#129L 65-72-0.1
12-01@LamarQ4#358W 65-55+7.5
12-04vsRiceQ4#200L 71-83+13.8
12-10nUT ArlingtonQ4#250W 71-65+5.0
12-17vsSam HoustonQ3#83L 62-69-3.9
12-29vsUL MonroeQ4#306L 53-57+14.7
12-31vsTroyQ3#157L 52-55+2.4
01-05@James MadisonQ2#100W 63-62-14.6
01-07@South AlabamaQ2#106W 64-58-5.7
01-12@Arkansas StateQ4#285W 61-58+2.9
01-14@UL MonroeQ4#306L 58-61+3.9
01-19vsMarshallQ3#94L 73-81-1.8
01-21vsLouisianaQ3#104L 51-60+0.9
01-26vsGeorgia SouthernQ4#216W 70-67+6.2
01-28@Southern MissQ2#131L 58-67-7.6
02-02@LouisianaQ2#104L 63-82-8.0
02-04@TroyQ3#157L 64-68-5.3
02-09vsArkansas StateQ4#285W 66-62+9.6
02-11vsOld DominionQ4#180L 68-70+2.4
02-16@App StateQ3#193L 75-82-3.6
02-18@Coastal CarolinaQ4#303W 78-75+1.8
02-22vsSouth AlabamaQ3#106L 67-76-1.2
02-24vsSouthern MissQ3#131L 69-79-1.1
02-28nGeorgia StateQ4#283W 81-76+3.9
03-02nOld DominionQ3#180W 65-36-2.6
03-04nMarshallQ2#94W 71-68-7.9
03-05nLouisianaQ3#104L 58-64-5.4

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 363 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.