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Texas State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Sun Belt · 15-18 · AdjEM -3.6, 205 of 362 nationally.

2023-24 seasonthrough ratings as of 2024-04-0824 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2024-04-08

Every team →
AdjEM
-3.6205 of 362
AdjO
98.0287 of 362
AdjD
101.6129 of 362
AdjT
68.4276 of 362

Texas State went from -1.1 (#183) on 2023-11-05 to -3.6 (#205) on 2024-04-08, peaking at -1.1 (#183) on 2023-11-05.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2023-11-052024-04-08

Four factorsraw season rates · 33 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
47.1%307
TOV%
18.2%322
OREB%
28.2%130
FTA/FGA
37.8%57
Opp eFG%
49.7%127
Opp TOV%
17.4%76
DREB%
73.0%177
Opp FTA/FGA
38.3%300

Résumé15-18 · against the ratings of 2024-04-08

Schedule strength
+0.4147 of 362
Non-conference
+5.360 of 362
Luck
+3.8%95 of 362
Wins above bubble
-11.4220 of 362
Quad 1
0-4
Quad 2
2-2
Quad 3
5-8
Quad 4
8-4

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players12 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Dylan DawsonG3327.88.21.81.445.3%49.2%18.1%34.6%77.4%
Jordan MasonG2931.012.93.62.841.1%46.7%26.6%29.5%79.3%
Christian TurnerF3525.26.04.21.052.2%54.3%13.3%27.8%61.4%
Brandon LoveF3425.210.45.40.854.9%55.1%23.0%—53.0%
Kaden GumbsG2529.99.14.43.541.7%47.2%20.5%25.9%74.7%
Davion SykesG2228.011.26.91.250.0%53.5%20.8%9.1%66.3%
Joshua O'GarroG3314.54.73.20.558.8%58.9%15.4%27.3%56.4%
Coleton BensonG2518.98.21.60.852.0%59.0%21.7%37.6%94.4%
Dontae HorneG3115.16.52.21.345.0%52.4%24.9%31.9%74.4%
Chris NixF3213.33.43.20.854.8%54.9%15.8%—53.3%
Elijah TateG278.82.31.00.344.4%47.2%16.1%25.7%80.0%
Tyrel MorganF227.014.08.01.586.7%85.2%21.0%80.0%66.7%

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games15-18

“Ours” is our projected margin for Texas State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-06@Little RockQ3#190L 66-71+4.6
11-11@Miami (OH)Q3#236W 75-65+2.1
11-14@OklahomaQ1#45L 54-93-16.0
11-17vsUTSAQ4#263W 72-62+12.4
11-21nMcNeeseQ2#91L 48-59-1.3
11-22nSouthern UtahQ4#238L 67-74-3.0
11-25@UT ArlingtonQ2#133W 73-66-5.0
11-30@TexasQ1#19L 58-77-22.4
12-15@Sam HoustonQ3#143W 73-60-10.3
12-21@HoustonQ1#2L 37-72-28.1
12-30@James MadisonQ1#66L 65-82-15.9
01-04vsCoastal CarolinaQ4#311L 63-71+11.4
01-06vsMarshallQ4#226L 75-79+2.4
01-11@Arkansas StateQ3#155L 82-85-6.0
01-13@UL MonroeQ4#312W 67-54+2.8
01-17vsLouisianaQ3#153L 68-86-0.5
01-20vsArkansas StateQ3#155L 72-79+2.0
01-24@TroyQ3#148L 65-78-8.5
01-28@LouisianaQ3#153L 46-66-10.1
02-01vsSouth AlabamaQ4#216W 74-66+2.0
02-03vsSouthern MissQ4#235W 60-55+1.8
02-07vsApp StateQ2#75W 63-56-8.1
02-10vsBall StateQ4#246W 68-60+2.3
02-15@South AlabamaQ3#216L 55-72-3.6
02-17@Southern MissQ3#235L 74-78-4.5
02-22@Georgia SouthernQ4#273L 76-84+0.2
02-24@Georgia StateQ3#223W 68-59-4.9
02-27vsUL MonroeQ4#312W 73-55+7.7
03-01vsTroyQ3#148W 82-79-2.1
03-05nOld DominionQ4#277W 92-83+2.3
03-07nSouthern MissQ4#235W 75-59+0.0
03-09nTroyQ3#148W 74-68-5.4
03-10nJames MadisonQ2#66L 68-73-12.6

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 362 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.