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Texas State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Sun Belt · 18-8 · AdjEM +4.1, 114 of 359 nationally.

2021-22 seasonthrough ratings as of 2022-04-0421 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2022-04-04

Every team →
AdjEM
+4.1114 of 359
AdjO
105.277 of 359
AdjD
101.0189 of 359
AdjT
64.6347 of 359

Texas State went from +3.2 (#78) on 2021-11-15 to +4.1 (#114) on 2022-04-04, peaking at +7.6 (#60) on 2021-12-20.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2021-11-152022-04-04

Four factorsraw season rates · 25 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
50.7%136
TOV%
17.0%158
OREB%
29.4%83
FTA/FGA
33.6%76
Opp eFG%
50.6%204
Opp TOV%
19.9%36
DREB%
72.5%235
Opp FTA/FGA
33.5%259

Résumé18-8 · against the ratings of 2022-04-04

Schedule strength
-1.7214 of 359
Non-conference
+0.8176 of 359
Luck
+6.7%53 of 359
Wins above bubble
-1.784 of 359
Quad 1
0-4
Quad 2
0-0
Quad 3
5-3
Quad 4
13-1

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players15 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Caleb AsberryG2929.113.64.52.154.2%58.7%25.4%38.4%82.0%
Mason HarrellG2829.911.71.93.154.6%59.9%20.1%40.3%84.4%
Shelby AdamsG2828.99.53.81.655.4%59.5%17.4%45.0%82.3%
Isiah SmallF2827.910.87.21.548.1%51.4%23.3%28.0%70.0%
Nighael CeaserF2719.38.54.90.858.3%59.4%22.7%33.3%64.0%
Nate MartinF2917.54.53.40.650.0%51.6%15.7%—57.5%
Drue DrinnonG2815.93.81.01.640.4%45.6%18.3%32.4%82.1%
Tyrel MorganF2714.34.23.20.452.2%54.9%18.0%47.1%70.4%
Dylan DawsonG2611.22.90.50.356.2%56.8%14.1%43.2%75.0%
Davion ColemanG207.71.40.80.532.9%36.1%17.4%11.1%62.5%
Brandon LoveF176.21.40.90.147.6%47.3%14.5%—42.9%
Nate LacewellF144.61.40.90.372.7%72.2%14.8%80.0%66.7%
Darien JenkinsG67.03.00.80.361.5%64.5%23.0%44.4%100.0%
Deuce GuidryG63.50.50.20.00.0%25.4%17.7%0.0%75.0%
Dalen WhitlockG63.20.50.50.021.4%21.4%22.7%20.0%—

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games18-8

“Ours” is our projected margin for Texas State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-09@Incarnate WordQ4#350W 75-57—
11-12@LSUQ1#19L 59-84—
11-14@VanderbiltQ1#65L 60-79—
11-19nUtah TechQ4#296W 85-65+5.8
11-20nEastern WashingtonQ4#209W 81-74+2.5
11-30@RiceQ3#225W 80-69-4.7
12-05vsDenverQ4#284W 71-58+10.6
12-15vsLamarQ4#347W 67-47+15.9
12-22@HoustonQ1#2L 47-80-14.7
12-30vsTroyQ4#201L 63-78+12.5
01-13vsUL MonroeQ4#292W 80-56+10.1
01-15vsLouisianaQ4#167W 72-68+4.1
01-20@Little RockQ4#327W 69-59+4.4
01-22@Arkansas StateQ3#187L 60-67-3.1
01-27@UT ArlingtonQ3#240L 58-70+1.4
01-29vsUT ArlingtonQ4#240W 58-53+10.1
02-03vsApp StateQ4#184W 68-66+6.2
02-05vsCoastal CarolinaQ3#144W 69-64+4.9
02-10@LouisianaQ3#167W 82-73-3.0
02-12@UL MonroeQ4#292W 63-54+3.5
02-17vsArkansas StateQ4#187W 84-67+5.6
02-19vsLittle RockQ4#327W 68-50+14.3
02-23@South AlabamaQ3#143W 55-52-3.6
02-25@TroyQ3#201W 66-61-0.7
03-05nLouisianaQ3#167L 72-79+3.5
03-15@North TexasQ1#29L 63-67-9.0

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 359 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.