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Missouri State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

MVC · 17-16 · AdjEM +2.3, 141 of 362 nationally.

2023-24 seasonthrough ratings as of 2024-04-0824 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2024-04-08

Every team →
AdjEM
+2.3141 of 362
AdjO
102.8195 of 362
AdjD
100.5114 of 362
AdjT
69.8182 of 362

Missouri State went from +4.0 (#123) on 2023-11-05 to +2.3 (#141) on 2024-04-08, peaking at +10.7 (#74) on 2023-11-20.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2023-11-052024-04-08

Four factorsraw season rates · 33 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
49.7%230
TOV%
16.7%231
OREB%
28.3%128
FTA/FGA
31.5%219
Opp eFG%
48.0%46
Opp TOV%
12.1%354
DREB%
77.2%28
Opp FTA/FGA
24.9%16

Résumé17-16 · against the ratings of 2024-04-08

Schedule strength
+1.5131 of 362
Non-conference
-3.0284 of 362
Luck
-0.3%183 of 362
Wins above bubble
-8.9168 of 362
Quad 1
1-4
Quad 2
2-5
Quad 3
4-4
Quad 4
10-3

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players13 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Donovan ClayG3333.012.85.92.448.3%51.9%22.4%32.6%68.8%
Alston MasonG3035.217.53.03.650.7%54.5%27.0%35.3%78.3%
Chance MooreG3126.810.75.30.549.1%51.3%21.6%29.5%61.7%
Matthew LeeG2927.48.52.53.839.5%47.5%22.4%29.0%80.4%
NJ BensonF3222.08.67.90.763.0%63.2%18.7%—61.1%
Damien Mayo Jr.G2923.95.13.41.055.8%58.4%11.4%33.3%75.9%
Cesare EdwardsC3318.07.24.80.449.8%52.7%22.5%25.0%78.6%
Raphe AyresG3117.62.22.90.651.7%54.1%7.3%34.5%80.0%
Nick KramerG814.93.81.80.346.7%47.7%14.9%36.4%66.7%
Dawson CarperF154.11.10.90.061.5%55.3%17.2%—20.0%
Kobi WilliamsG122.04.02.02.014.3%23.7%22.0%0.0%66.7%
Kanon GipsonG80.90.00.00.10.0%0.0%14.7%——
Tommy PinegarG80.80.00.00.00.0%0.0%8.6%0.0%—

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games17-16

“Ours” is our projected margin for Missouri State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-06@West VirginiaQ2#128L 59-67-13.0
11-13vsOral RobertsQ4#237W 84-69+2.6
11-17nFlorida Gulf CoastQ4#206W 70-61+2.4
11-19nKent StateQ3#156W 56-52-0.9
11-20nAbilene ChristianQ4#229W 87-69+3.5
11-25vsSouth Carolina StateQ4#310W 92-74+25.8
11-29vsEvansvilleQ4#242W 90-78+13.7
12-02@DrakeQ1#56L 57-74-5.4
12-05@Middle TennesseeQ4#278L 73-77+5.0
12-09vsSam HoustonQ3#143W 69-60+7.2
12-16@TulsaQ3#208L 72-73+5.7
12-19vsLindenwoodQ4#358W 79-57+20.6
12-23@Saint Mary'sQ1#14W 69-64-9.7
01-03vsNorthern IowaQ3#123L 62-64+5.9
01-06@BradleyQ1#62L 60-86-3.5
01-10vsMurray StateQ4#172L 53-77+8.3
01-13@EvansvilleQ4#242W 74-64+2.3
01-16@Indiana StateQ1#42L 66-88-13.0
01-20vsIllinois StateQ4#201L 60-69+11.4
01-24vsDrakeQ2#56W 83-80-5.7
01-27@ValparaisoQ4#302W 81-70+5.4
01-31@Southern IllinoisQ2#124W 76-75-6.0
02-03vsBelmontQ3#120W 87-80+5.0
02-07@Northern IowaQ2#123L 65-72-3.2
02-10vsIndiana StateQ2#42L 71-73-6.4
02-14@Murray StateQ3#172L 72-82-2.4
02-17vsValparaisoQ4#302W 82-74+13.7
02-21vsBradleyQ2#62L 62-86-3.1
02-24@BelmontQ2#120L 78-93-3.9
02-28@Illinois StateQ3#201L 74-75-0.8
03-03vsUICQ4#181W 69-59+5.7
03-07nMurray StateQ3#172W 60-35+0.4
03-08nIndiana StateQ1#42L 59-75-10.5

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 362 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.