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Virginia

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

ACC · 14-18 · AdjEM +7.8, 96 of 364 nationally.

2024-25 seasonthrough ratings as of 2025-04-0724 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2025-04-07

Every team →
AdjEM
+7.896 of 364
AdjO
108.6103 of 364
AdjD
100.897 of 364
AdjT
62.3362 of 364

Virginia went from +14.2 (#62) on 2024-11-03 to +7.8 (#96) on 2025-04-07, peaking at +14.2 (#62) on 2024-11-03.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2024-11-032025-04-07

Four factorsraw season rates · 32 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
52.0%114
TOV%
15.1%115
OREB%
21.2%337
FTA/FGA
26.8%335
Opp eFG%
51.5%215
Opp TOV%
14.6%288
DREB%
73.3%128
Opp FTA/FGA
28.4%65

Résumé14-18 · against the ratings of 2025-04-07

Schedule strength
+9.965 of 364
Non-conference
+5.069 of 364
Luck
-2.9%242 of 364
Wins above bubble
-6.8119 of 364
Quad 1
2-9
Quad 2
1-6
Quad 3
4-3
Quad 4
7-0

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players14 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Isaac McKneelyG3234.414.42.72.958.5%60.9%22.9%42.1%81.4%
Andrew RohdeG3031.09.32.94.352.4%54.7%19.7%41.3%77.3%
Dai Dai AmesG3125.78.71.41.952.9%55.7%20.9%39.7%82.9%
Elijah SaundersF2926.810.45.00.848.8%53.9%24.2%34.7%83.3%
Blake BuchananF3222.05.45.31.453.4%54.1%15.7%0.0%54.1%
Jacob CofieF3220.77.24.61.052.2%55.4%21.2%24.4%75.0%
Taine MurrayG3118.64.11.51.650.9%52.4%14.9%41.9%73.3%
Ishan SharmaF2912.83.41.30.846.7%50.7%17.2%33.3%93.8%
Anthony RobinsonF269.13.62.40.172.1%69.7%20.4%—62.0%
TJ PowerF249.31.31.00.627.3%33.5%15.9%18.2%100.0%
Desmond RobertsG51.40.80.60.033.3%50.6%33.4%—100.0%
Bryce WalkerG61.20.30.00.250.0%50.0%33.8%0.0%—
Eli BennettG21.00.00.00.0——0.0%——
Markus RouseG10.00.00.00.0—————

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games14-18

“Ours” is our projected margin for Virginia, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-06vsCampbellQ4#231W 65-56+19.4
11-11vsCoppin StateQ4#362W 62-45+27.3
11-15nVillanovaQ1#38L 60-70-2.1
11-21nTennesseeQ1#5L 42-64-17.1
11-22nSt. John'sQ1#18L 55-80-8.5
11-26vsManhattanQ4#262W 74-65+16.2
11-29vsHoly CrossQ4#320W 67-41+14.6
12-04@FloridaQ1#4L 69-87-17.7
12-07@SMUQ1#42L 51-63-12.1
12-12vsBethune-CookmanQ4#292W 59-41+14.2
12-18vsMemphisQ2#55L 62-64-6.9
12-22vsAmerican UniversityQ4#236W 63-58+11.0
12-31vsNC StateQ3#102W 70-67+0.9
01-04vsLouisvilleQ2#34L 50-70-1.1
01-08@CaliforniaQ2#114L 61-75-2.5
01-11@StanfordQ2#84L 65-88-5.2
01-15vsSMUQ2#42L 52-54-6.2
01-18@LouisvilleQ1#34L 67-81-12.0
01-21vsBoston CollegeQ4#165W 74-56+7.6
01-25vsNotre DameQ3#90L 59-74-1.3
01-29@MiamiQ3#157W 82-71+0.6
02-01vsVirginia TechQ3#124L 74-75+4.3
02-03@PittsburghQ1#53W 73-57-13.7
02-08vsGeorgia TechQ3#106W 75-61+4.6
02-15@Virginia TechQ2#124W 73-70-0.6
02-17vsDukeQ1#1L 62-80-16.2
02-22@North CarolinaQ1#32L 66-81-10.2
02-26@Wake ForestQ1#61W 83-75-7.3
03-01vsClemsonQ1#23L 58-71-7.4
03-04vsFlorida StateQ3#86W 60-57+2.3
03-08@SyracuseQ2#117L 70-84+0.2
03-12nGeorgia TechQ3#106L 60-66+1.3

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 364 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.