Skip to content

NC State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

ACC · 12-19 · AdjEM +7.0, 102 of 364 nationally.

2024-25 seasonthrough ratings as of 2025-04-0724 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2025-04-07

Every team →
AdjEM
+7.0102 of 364
AdjO
108.0116 of 364
AdjD
101.0102 of 364
AdjT
67.4301 of 364

NC State went from +15.6 (#51) on 2024-11-03 to +7.0 (#102) on 2025-04-07, peaking at +16.3 (#49) on 2024-11-04.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2024-11-032025-04-07

Four factorsraw season rates · 31 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
48.3%294
TOV%
13.6%32
OREB%
27.7%185
FTA/FGA
32.3%197
Opp eFG%
51.0%180
Opp TOV%
17.2%92
DREB%
69.7%293
Opp FTA/FGA
32.2%161

Résumé12-19 · against the ratings of 2025-04-07

Schedule strength
+8.373 of 364
Non-conference
+0.4185 of 364
Luck
-8.7%331 of 364
Wins above bubble
-9.1164 of 364
Quad 1
0-7
Quad 2
2-10
Quad 3
2-2
Quad 4
8-0

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players16 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Michael O'ConnellG3129.46.42.93.642.6%46.0%13.7%30.5%66.7%
Jayden TaylorG3129.010.62.81.647.8%52.0%20.7%31.8%75.3%
Marcus HillG3127.511.53.91.646.6%50.5%22.8%20.5%75.3%
Dontrez StylesG3126.311.45.00.552.9%54.7%21.7%36.1%71.4%
Quadir CopelandG3521.99.23.34.549.6%53.8%26.2%15.4%68.1%
Ben MiddlebrooksF3021.77.54.21.046.4%54.3%18.5%27.8%73.2%
Brandon Huntley-HatfieldF2619.77.24.81.151.1%57.5%19.4%33.3%80.0%
Breon PassG3013.94.51.31.150.9%54.7%17.5%37.5%87.5%
Dennis Parker Jr.G2712.32.92.30.743.1%43.2%15.9%25.0%41.7%
Trey ParkerG2711.94.61.41.149.6%50.9%23.4%35.7%75.0%
Paul McNeil Jr.G248.64.21.30.854.7%58.1%23.0%35.6%76.0%
Bryce HeardG246.31.20.80.336.4%45.8%11.2%20.0%66.7%
Ismael DioufF188.02.21.40.248.6%48.4%15.9%14.3%44.4%
Alyn BreedG230.017.53.01.556.5%64.2%29.8%50.0%100.0%
KJ KeattsG41.30.50.00.050.0%50.0%30.4%0.0%—
Jordan SnellG41.30.50.30.0100.0%100.0%20.2%——

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games12-19

“Ours” is our projected margin for NC State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-04vsSouth Carolina UpstateQ4#348W 97-66+25.3
11-08vsPresbyterianQ4#249W 81-72+21.5
11-13vsCoastal CarolinaQ4#315W 82-70+22.3
11-18vsColgateQ4#223W 72-49+13.5
11-22vsWilliam & MaryQ4#235W 84-61+17.5
11-28nPurdueQ1#14L 61-71-8.2
11-29nBYUQ1#21L 61-72-6.2
12-04vsTexasQ2#35L 59-63-3.7
12-07vsFlorida StateQ3#86W 84-74+3.5
12-10vsCoppin StateQ4#362W 66-56+34.1
12-14@KansasQ1#16L 60-75-12.1
12-22vsRiderQ4#302W 89-63+17.8
12-31@VirginiaQ2#96L 67-70-0.9
01-04@Wake ForestQ1#61L 59-77-3.3
01-08vsNotre DameQ3#90W 66-65+2.7
01-11vsNorth CarolinaQ2#32L 61-63-4.4
01-15@Virginia TechQ2#124L 76-79+0.3
01-18vsCaliforniaQ3#114L 62-65+6.7
01-25vsSMUQ2#42L 57-63-5.1
01-27@DukeQ1#1L 64-74-23.6
02-01vsClemsonQ1#23L 58-68-5.3
02-05@CaliforniaQ2#114L 62-74-0.2
02-08@StanfordQ2#84L 73-74-4.8
02-12vsLouisvilleQ2#34L 66-91-5.9
02-15vsBoston CollegeQ4#165W 70-62+9.8
02-19@North CarolinaQ1#32L 73-97-11.5
02-22vsWake ForestQ2#61W 85-73-3.0
02-26@SyracuseQ2#117L 60-74+0.1
03-01@Georgia TechQ2#106L 62-87-1.1
03-05vsPittsburghQ2#53W 71-63-4.0
03-08@MiamiQ3#157L 70-72+1.1

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 364 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.