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Virginia

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

ACC · 25-8 · AdjEM +16.8, 30 of 363 nationally.

2022-23 seasonthrough ratings as of 2023-04-0323 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2023-04-03

Every team →
AdjEM
+16.830 of 363
AdjO
109.054 of 363
AdjD
92.225 of 363
AdjT
63.5359 of 363

Virginia went from +11.1 (#41) on 2022-11-06 to +16.8 (#30) on 2023-04-03, peaking at +20.9 (#13) on 2022-11-28.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2022-11-062023-04-03

Four factorsraw season rates · 33 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
51.2%144
TOV%
12.8%6
OREB%
23.7%263
FTA/FGA
34.7%78
Opp eFG%
48.3%74
Opp TOV%
18.0%111
DREB%
77.7%31
Opp FTA/FGA
26.3%49

Résumé25-8 · against the ratings of 2023-04-03

Schedule strength
+7.071 of 363
Non-conference
+5.248 of 363
Luck
+6.5%50 of 363
Wins above bubble
+3.621 of 363
Quad 1
5-6
Quad 2
7-1
Quad 3
5-1
Quad 4
8-0

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players12 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Kihei ClarkG3333.110.72.65.446.7%53.0%20.9%35.2%76.7%
Reece BeekmanG3232.79.53.05.345.7%51.0%19.0%35.1%79.3%
Armaan FranklinG3329.312.44.11.451.6%54.1%24.2%37.3%70.9%
Jayden GardnerF3326.312.05.80.751.0%54.0%26.1%0.0%68.5%
Ben Vander PlasF2924.87.44.61.450.0%50.4%18.5%30.3%50.9%
Isaac McKneelyG3321.56.72.20.756.3%57.4%17.2%39.2%70.8%
Kadin ShedrickF3017.56.23.80.665.2%69.6%16.8%20.0%79.4%
Ryan DunnF3113.02.62.90.357.3%56.6%12.3%31.3%50.0%
Francisco CaffaroC208.32.01.80.275.0%70.1%12.9%—55.6%
Taine MurrayG137.21.40.90.236.8%41.2%15.2%16.7%66.7%
Chase ColemanG74.01.00.10.637.5%37.1%23.3%33.3%33.3%
Tristan HowF42.50.81.80.025.0%25.4%33.6%—25.0%

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games25-8

“Ours” is our projected margin for Virginia, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-07vsNorth Carolina CentralQ4#198W 73-61+15.2
11-11vsMonmouthQ4#347W 89-42+11.2
11-18nBaylorQ1#17W 86-79-5.3
11-20nIllinoisQ1#32W 70-61-1.0
11-25vsMaryland Eastern ShoreQ4#257W 72-45+24.5
11-29@MichiganQ1#48W 70-68+3.5
12-03vsFlorida StateQ4#203W 62-57+23.9
12-06vsJames MadisonQ3#100W 55-50+9.6
12-17vsHoustonQ1#1L 61-69-5.5
12-20@MiamiQ1#23L 64-66-0.8
12-28vsUAlbanyQ4#335W 66-46+23.9
12-31@Georgia TechQ3#164W 74-56+4.5
01-03@PittsburghQ1#70L 65-68+3.4
01-07vsSyracuseQ3#115W 73-66+13.1
01-10vsNorth CarolinaQ2#38W 65-58+4.6
01-14@Florida StateQ3#203W 67-58+9.2
01-18vsVirginia TechQ2#64W 78-68+6.8
01-21@Wake ForestQ2#84W 76-67+2.0
01-28vsBoston CollegeQ4#167W 76-57+17.2
01-30@SyracuseQ2#115W 67-62+3.9
02-04@Virginia TechQ1#64L 68-74-1.1
02-07vsNC StateQ2#56W 63-50+7.4
02-11vsDukeQ1#13W 69-62+4.2
02-15@LouisvilleQ4#287W 61-58+16.1
02-18vsNotre DameQ3#152W 57-55+15.5
02-22@Boston CollegeQ3#167L 48-63+8.8
02-25@North CarolinaQ1#38L 63-71-2.0
02-28vsClemsonQ2#58W 64-57+5.6
03-04vsLouisvilleQ4#287W 75-60+20.2
03-09nNorth CarolinaQ1#38W 68-59+0.5
03-10nClemsonQ2#58W 76-56+1.5
03-11nDukeQ1#13L 49-59-2.1
03-16nFurmanQ2#85L 67-68+4.7

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 363 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.