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Virginia

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

ACC · 23-11 · AdjEM +13.9, 59 of 362 nationally.

2023-24 seasonthrough ratings as of 2024-04-0824 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2024-04-08

Every team →
AdjEM
+13.959 of 362
AdjO
104.9157 of 362
AdjD
91.08 of 362
AdjT
62.6362 of 362

Virginia went from +15.0 (#41) on 2023-11-05 to +13.9 (#59) on 2024-04-08, peaking at +22.0 (#14) on 2023-12-11.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2023-11-052024-04-08

Four factorsraw season rates · 34 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
48.6%262
TOV%
12.0%4
OREB%
23.4%283
FTA/FGA
25.3%347
Opp eFG%
46.6%17
Opp TOV%
17.8%60
DREB%
73.7%148
Opp FTA/FGA
25.8%24

Résumé23-11 · against the ratings of 2024-04-08

Schedule strength
+8.380 of 362
Non-conference
+2.4125 of 362
Luck
+6.8%46 of 362
Wins above bubble
+0.444 of 362
Quad 1
2-8
Quad 2
8-3
Quad 3
7-0
Quad 4
6-0

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players13 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Reece BeekmanG3432.714.33.66.248.2%52.2%27.9%31.0%75.4%
Isaac McKneelyG3332.312.33.01.653.0%55.8%21.5%44.5%84.7%
Ryan DunnF3427.58.16.90.856.5%56.4%16.9%20.0%53.2%
Andrew RohdeG3325.24.31.82.737.0%37.4%15.7%25.7%43.8%
Jacob GrovesF3420.37.42.80.657.4%57.9%19.2%45.9%62.1%
Blake BuchananF3415.13.43.10.441.4%43.3%16.8%—50.0%
Jordan MinorF3214.74.33.10.347.4%49.2%19.5%—55.1%
Taine MurrayG3313.63.31.20.959.0%59.5%12.9%45.0%61.1%
Dante HarrisG2413.82.52.01.429.3%31.9%19.2%10.0%50.0%
Leon Bond IIIF2412.34.12.80.646.4%47.7%21.9%50.0%64.3%
Elijah GertrudeG169.63.41.20.437.1%40.6%28.9%6.7%61.1%
Tristan HowF91.80.70.20.150.0%46.3%23.5%0.0%0.0%
Bryce WalkerG71.90.60.10.150.0%50.6%17.6%50.0%50.0%

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games23-11

“Ours” is our projected margin for Virginia, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-06vsTarleton StateQ3#142W 80-50+15.3
11-10nFloridaQ1#28W 73-70+3.7
11-14vsNorth Carolina A&TQ4#347W 80-51+29.6
11-16vsTexas SouthernQ4#279W 62-33+25.8
11-20nWisconsinQ1#22L 41-65+4.4
11-22nWest VirginiaQ3#128W 56-54+7.4
11-29vsTexas A&MQ2#36W 59-47+0.2
12-02vsSyracuseQ3#93W 84-62+13.0
12-05vsNorth Carolina CentralQ4#269W 77-47+24.0
12-16vsNortheasternQ4#254W 56-54+21.8
12-19@MemphisQ1#63L 54-75-2.9
12-27vsMorgan StateQ4#337W 79-44+29.2
12-30@Notre DameQ2#122L 54-76+11.2
01-03vsLouisvilleQ4#203W 77-53+19.4
01-06@NC StateQ1#52L 60-76-0.9
01-13@Wake ForestQ1#41L 47-66-2.8
01-17vsVirginia TechQ2#57W 65-57+3.9
01-20@Georgia TechQ2#126W 75-66+4.2
01-24vsNC StateQ2#52W 59-53+6.5
01-27@LouisvilleQ3#203W 69-52+9.8
01-31vsNotre DameQ3#122W 65-53+13.1
02-03@ClemsonQ1#23W 66-65-5.7
02-05vsMiamiQ3#83W 60-38+4.7
02-10@Florida StateQ2#96W 80-76+4.0
02-13vsPittsburghQ2#43L 63-74+6.1
02-17vsWake ForestQ2#41W 49-47+3.8
02-19@Virginia TechQ1#57L 41-75-0.4
02-24vsNorth CarolinaQ1#10L 44-54-2.4
02-28@Boston CollegeQ2#87W 72-68+1.6
03-02@DukeQ1#11L 48-73-8.8
03-09vsGeorgia TechQ3#126W 72-57+10.5
03-14nBoston CollegeQ2#87W 66-60+5.2
03-15nNC StateQ2#52L 65-73+2.6
03-19nColorado StateQ1#47L 42-67-0.3

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 362 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.