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Duke

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

ACC · 27-9 · AdjEM +20.8, 13 of 363 nationally.

2022-23 seasonthrough ratings as of 2023-04-0323 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2023-04-03

Every team →
AdjEM
+20.813 of 363
AdjO
111.726 of 363
AdjD
90.916 of 363
AdjT
67.7283 of 363

Duke went from +18.1 (#10) on 2022-11-06 to +20.8 (#13) on 2023-04-03, peaking at +23.4 (#4) on 2022-11-14.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2022-11-062023-04-03

Four factorsraw season rates · 36 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
51.1%149
TOV%
17.3%204
OREB%
34.7%8
FTA/FGA
29.9%227
Opp eFG%
46.0%15
Opp TOV%
15.6%273
DREB%
76.1%71
Opp FTA/FGA
23.7%13

Résumé27-9 · against the ratings of 2023-04-03

Schedule strength
+8.744 of 363
Non-conference
+7.524 of 363
Luck
+1.0%147 of 363
Wins above bubble
+4.817 of 363
Quad 1
6-8
Quad 2
8-1
Quad 3
4-0
Quad 4
9-0

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players15 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Jeremy RoachG3233.113.62.53.148.8%52.3%23.9%34.3%78.0%
Tyrese ProctorG3629.39.43.13.345.9%50.4%19.4%32.0%87.1%
Kyle FilipowskiF3629.215.18.91.648.1%53.3%29.6%28.2%76.5%
Mark Mitchell Jr.G3527.19.14.51.250.8%55.4%18.2%35.2%76.3%
Dereck Lively IIC3420.65.25.41.166.7%66.2%11.6%15.4%60.0%
Ryan YoungC3617.76.45.51.368.5%71.7%16.5%—81.3%
Dariq WhiteheadF2820.78.32.41.052.8%54.8%22.4%42.9%79.3%
Jacob GrandisonG3615.74.42.01.352.2%54.7%15.0%33.7%88.9%
Jaylen BlakesG3113.63.41.51.343.5%47.5%16.0%34.1%64.9%
Jaden SchuttG146.92.11.10.448.2%48.5%16.0%35.0%50.0%
Christian ReevesC133.21.51.00.172.7%72.2%21.4%—66.7%
Kale CatchingsF103.30.80.80.244.4%38.4%18.0%0.0%0.0%
Max JohnsG93.00.00.40.20.0%0.0%7.7%——
Spencer HubbardG33.00.00.30.00.0%0.0%23.1%0.0%—
Stanley BordenC11.00.01.00.0——0.0%——

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games27-9

“Ours” is our projected margin for Duke, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-07vsJacksonvilleQ4#223W 71-44+14.3
11-11vsSouth Carolina UpstateQ4#254W 84-38+22.8
11-15nKansasQ1#10L 64-69+4.7
11-18vsDelawareQ4#213W 92-58+19.7
11-21vsBellarmineQ4#263W 74-57+19.3
11-24nOregon StateQ4#237W 54-51+23.1
11-25nXavierQ1#21W 71-64+9.1
11-27nPurdueQ1#8L 56-75+4.1
11-30vsOhio StateQ2#37W 81-72+6.3
12-03vsBoston CollegeQ4#167W 75-59+19.5
12-06nIowaQ1#42W 74-62+0.2
12-10vsMaryland Eastern ShoreQ4#257W 82-55+26.8
12-20@Wake ForestQ2#84L 70-81+4.9
12-31vsFlorida StateQ4#203W 86-67+20.6
01-04@NC StateQ1#56L 60-84+2.3
01-07@Boston CollegeQ3#167W 65-64+12.4
01-11vsPittsburghQ2#70W 77-69+11.0
01-14@ClemsonQ1#58L 64-72-0.9
01-21vsMiamiQ1#23W 68-66+5.9
01-23@Virginia TechQ1#64L 75-78-2.0
01-28@Georgia TechQ3#164W 86-43+7.8
01-31vsWake ForestQ3#84W 75-73+9.7
02-04vsNorth CarolinaQ2#38W 63-57+5.3
02-06@MiamiQ1#23L 59-81-1.3
02-11@VirginiaQ1#30L 62-69-4.2
02-14vsNotre DameQ3#152W 68-64+15.2
02-18@SyracuseQ2#115W 77-55+2.8
02-20vsLouisvilleQ4#287W 79-62+23.1
02-25vsVirginia TechQ2#64W 81-65+7.0
02-28vsNC StateQ2#56W 71-67+7.6
03-04@North CarolinaQ1#38W 62-57-1.3
03-09nPittsburghQ2#70W 96-69+5.4
03-10nMiamiQ1#23W 85-78+2.5
03-11nVirginiaQ1#30W 59-49+2.1
03-16nOral RobertsQ2#68W 74-51+5.1
03-18nTennesseeQ1#4L 52-65-5.8

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 363 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.