Kentucky vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsAUB
- Q3 9:27UKKendrick Law 13 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)10–3
- Q2 0:02AUBAlex McPherson 27 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 11:40UKJacob Kauwe 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassCutter Boley 18/29, 161 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushSeth McGowan 21 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecKendrick Law 6 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAshton Daniels 13/28, 108 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJeremiah Cobb 20 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecCam Coleman 5 REC, 34 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:11AUB +56%
#14 H.Kaak punt 47 yards to the UKY27 #1 K.Law return 11 yards to the UKY38 (#32 C.Carlson)
- Q3 9:27UK +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass complete short right to #1 K.Law caught at AUB15, for 13 yards to the AUB00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 5:27UK +20%
#48 A.Laros punt 57 yards to the AUB06 #4 M.Simmons return 11 yards to the AUB17 (#84 J.Kattus; #10 J.Dunn)
- Q4 14:17UK +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley pass incomplete short right to #81 W.Rodriguez thrown to UKY42 broken up by #17 X.Atkins QB hurried by #47 M.Blocton PENALTY AUB Holding (…
- Q2 0:02AUB +15%
#38 A.McPherson field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD
- Q4 3:45UK +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.McGowan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UKY42 (#0 R.Woodyard Jr.)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Auburn?
Kentucky 10, Auburn 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AUB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UK | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 240 | Total yards | 241 |
| 161 | Passing yards | 123 |
| 79 | Rushing yards | 118 |
| 16 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 18/29 | Comp/Att | 15/31 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 4-26 |
| 31:46 | Possession | 28:14 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:55 UK punt on 4th & 2 at UK 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 9:27UKKendrick Law 13 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)10–3
- Q2 0:02AUBAlex McPherson 27 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 11:40UKJacob Kauwe 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1694, UK Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB -9.9 (75% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #28 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Auburn leads 28–7–1 · 36% have been one-possession games
| UK | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.8 (#52) | CORE overall | +13.6 (#30) |
| -2 / -8 | offense / defense | +2 / -12 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →