Memphis vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsMIZ
- Q4 1:21MEMKoby Drake 21 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)27–34
- Q4 2:46MIZCody Schrader 37 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)20–34
- Q4 5:18MEMTanner Gillis 22 Yd Field Goal 20–27
- Q4 11:01MIZHarrison Mevis 32 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q3 4:07MEMBlake Watson 13 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:19MIZTheo Wease Jr. 19 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick)10–24
- Q2 0:05MIZHarrison Mevis 25 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 6:27MIZNathaniel Peat 1 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)10–14
- Q1 2:15MEMJoseph Scates 3 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)10–7
- Q1 4:18MEMTanner Gillis 43 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:37MIZMarquis Johnson 76 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.0 vs 3rd & 7.8
- PassSeth Henigan 31/47, 316 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushBlake Watson 18 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecRoc Taylor 7 REC, 143 YDS
- PassBrady Cook 18/25, 341 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCody Schrader 14 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLuther Burden III 10 REC, 177 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,297 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:27MIZ +22%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 20 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST down
- Q2 6:27MIZ +21%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 3 yds to the MEM 38
- Q1 2:15MEM +19%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 3 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)
- Q3 4:07MEM +19%
Blake Watson 13 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)
- Q1 9:37MIZ +18%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 76 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
- Q4 11:01MIZ +12%
Harrison Mevis 32 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Missouri?
Memphis 27, Missouri 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MEM | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 399 | Total yards | 542 |
| 316 | Passing yards | 341 |
| 83 | Rushing yards | 201 |
| 21 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 0-8 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 31/47 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 13.6 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-39 | Penalties | 7-41 |
| 32:40 | Possession | 27:20 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:54 MEM go for it on 4th & 4 at MIZ 21. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.20 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:21MEMKoby Drake 21 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)27–34
- Q4 2:46MIZCody Schrader 37 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)20–34
- Q4 5:18MEMTanner Gillis 22 Yd Field Goal 20–27
- Q4 11:01MIZHarrison Mevis 32 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q3 4:07MEMBlake Watson 13 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)17–24
- Q3 9:19MIZTheo Wease Jr. 19 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick)10–24
- Q2 0:05MIZHarrison Mevis 25 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 6:27MIZNathaniel Peat 1 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)10–14
- Q1 2:15MEMJoseph Scates 3 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)10–7
- Q1 4:18MEMTanner Gillis 43 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:37MIZMarquis Johnson 76 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1485, MEM Elo 1581 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MIZ +3.8 (41% to win) — 10.3 points clear of MEM's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MEM | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.9 (#51) | CORE overall | +20.7 (#12) |
| +8 / +5 | offense / defense | +12 / -9 |
| 3.18 | points / drive | 2.80 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.82 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →