Michigan State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Big Ten · 30-7 · AdjEM +27.0, 12 of 364 nationally.

2024-25 seasonthrough ratings as of 2025-04-0724 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2025-04-07

Every team →

AdjEM: +27.012 of 364
AdjO: 116.727 of 364
AdjD: 89.68 of 364
AdjT: 68.8227 of 364

Michigan State went from +18.7 (#32) on 2024-11-03 to +27.0 (#12) on 2025-04-07, finishing at its peak.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2024-11-032025-04-07

Four factorsraw season rates · 37 complete games

Leaderboards →

eFG%: 50.9%170
TOV%: 15.3%128
OREB%: 33.8%28
FTA/FGA: 37.7%44
Opp eFG%: 46.2%15
Opp TOV%: 14.9%260
DREB%: 77.1%15
Opp FTA/FGA: 31.5%143

Résumé30-7 · against the ratings of 2025-04-07

Schedule strength: +14.422 of 364
Non-conference: +7.837 of 364
Luck: +7.2%42 of 364
Wins above bubble: +9.17 of 364

Quad 1: 14-5
Quad 2: 6-2
Quad 3: 6-0
Quad 4: 4-0

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players13 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →

Player	G	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	eFG%	TS%	USG%	3P%	FT%
Jaden AkinsG	37	27.2	12.8	3.5	1.5	46.4%	49.2%	25.8%	29.3%	76.2%
Jase RichardsonG	36	25.3	12.1	3.3	1.9	57.4%	62.4%	20.8%	41.2%	83.6%
Tre HollomanG	37	23.1	9.1	1.9	3.7	45.2%	49.8%	23.1%	32.9%	85.1%
Jeremy Fears Jr.G	36	23.7	7.2	2.1	5.4	43.3%	52.4%	18.6%	34.2%	73.0%
Jaxon KohlerF	37	20.8	7.8	7.5	1.3	56.3%	59.6%	18.7%	37.3%	82.1%
Coen CarrF	37	20.7	8.1	3.6	0.5	62.4%	64.7%	17.1%	33.3%	70.1%
Carson CooperC	37	17.1	5.0	5.2	0.6	59.8%	64.6%	13.5%	0.0%	74.4%
Frankie FidlerF	37	16.2	7.0	3.3	0.8	42.2%	51.4%	22.9%	19.7%	86.1%
Szymon ZapalaC	36	14.2	4.3	4.0	0.6	65.3%	66.0%	14.3%	0.0%	65.9%
Xavier BookerF	33	12.8	4.7	2.2	0.2	47.8%	50.9%	21.4%	23.3%	78.6%
Kur TengG	19	2.9	0.5	0.7	0.2	28.6%	33.4%	17.2%	22.2%	100.0%
Gehrig NormandG	13	2.0	0.6	0.1	0.2	50.0%	50.0%	17.2%	33.3%	—
Nick SandersG	10	1.4	0.8	0.2	0.0	57.1%	57.1%	28.5%	0.0%	—

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games30-7

“Ours” is our projected margin for Michigan State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

Date	Opponent	Quad	Result	Ours	Pace	Snapshot
11-04	vsMonmouth	Q4#253	W 81-57	+19.3	69	11-03
11-07	vsNiagara	Q4#318	W 96-60	+23.9	69	11-04
11-12	nKansas	Q1#16	L 69-77	-4.3	70	11-11
11-16	vsBowling Green	Q4#283	W 86-72	+22.8	70	11-11
11-19	vsSamford	Q3#122	W 83-75	+12.8	73	11-18
11-25	nColorado	Q2#74	W 72-56	+1.9	71	11-18
11-26	nMemphis	Q2#55	L 63-71	-1.9	72	11-25
11-27	nNorth Carolina	Q1#32	W 94-91	-4.5	72	11-25
12-04	@Minnesota	Q2#89	W 90-72	+6.7	69	12-02
12-07	vsNebraska	Q2#52	W 89-52	+5.0	71	12-02
12-17	nOakland	Q3#190	W 77-58	+17.9	68	12-16
12-21	vsFlorida Atlantic	Q3#105	W 86-69	+11.9	73	12-16
12-30	vsWestern Michigan	Q4#299	W 80-62	+28.2	70	12-23
01-03	@Ohio State	Q1#37	W 69-62	-4.5	70	12-30
01-09	vsWashington	Q3#100	W 88-54	+11.8	71	01-06
01-12	@Northwestern	Q1#49	W 78-68	+1.1	69	01-06
01-15	vsPenn State	Q2#68	W 90-85	+12.1	72	01-13
01-19	vsIllinois	Q1#17	W 80-78	+0.9	72	01-13
01-25	@Rutgers	Q2#77	W 81-74	+6.4	71	01-20
01-28	vsMinnesota	Q3#89	W 73-51	+14.5	69	01-27
02-01	@USC	Q1#60	L 64-70	+4.3	70	01-27
02-04	@UCLA	Q1#20	L 61-63	-2.3	69	02-03
02-08	vsOregon	Q2#31	W 86-74	+6.6	70	02-03
02-11	vsIndiana	Q2#54	L 67-71	+10.1	70	02-10
02-15	@Illinois	Q1#17	W 79-65	-5.3	72	02-10
02-18	vsPurdue	Q1#14	W 75-66	+1.1	68	02-17
02-21	@Michigan	Q1#27	W 75-62	-2.5	71	02-17
02-26	@Maryland	Q1#15	W 58-55	-2.7	70	02-24
03-02	vsWisconsin	Q1#19	W 71-62	+3.3	69	02-24
03-06	@Iowa	Q1#63	W 91-84	+6.5	71	03-03
03-09	vsMichigan	Q1#27	W 79-62	+6.3	71	03-03
03-14	nOregon	Q1#31	W 74-64	+4.2	70	03-10
03-15	nWisconsin	Q1#19	L 74-77	+1.6	69	03-10
03-21	nBryant	Q3#127	W 87-62	+16.3	72	03-17
03-23	nNew Mexico	Q1#47	W 71-63	+6.6	73	03-17
03-28	nOle Miss	Q1#30	W 73-70	+3.5	69	03-24
03-30	nAuburn	Q1#3	L 64-70	-6.9	69	03-24

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 364 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.