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Northwestern

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Big Ten · 17-16 · AdjEM +17.5, 49 of 364 nationally.

2024-25 seasonthrough ratings as of 2025-04-0724 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2025-04-07

Every team →
AdjEM
+17.549 of 364
AdjO
112.565 of 364
AdjD
95.037 of 364
AdjT
67.5292 of 364

Northwestern went from +17.8 (#37) on 2024-11-03 to +17.5 (#49) on 2025-04-07, peaking at +22.4 (#19) on 2024-11-04.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2024-11-032025-04-07

Four factorsraw season rates · 33 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
49.8%235
TOV%
13.7%34
OREB%
28.6%149
FTA/FGA
31.3%227
Opp eFG%
49.9%122
Opp TOV%
18.4%48
DREB%
72.9%153
Opp FTA/FGA
36.6%275

Résumé17-16 · against the ratings of 2025-04-07

Schedule strength
+13.041 of 364
Non-conference
+0.6175 of 364
Luck
-7.2%322 of 364
Wins above bubble
-2.869 of 364
Quad 1
3-12
Quad 2
6-3
Quad 3
2-1
Quad 4
6-0

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players14 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Nick MartinelliF3337.620.56.21.750.1%54.0%29.3%33.3%72.8%
Ty BerryG3329.210.63.61.352.6%54.9%19.1%38.5%78.8%
Matthew NicholsonC3324.55.25.51.458.6%58.1%11.0%0.0%53.9%
Jalen LeachG2331.514.32.13.452.9%58.7%23.3%39.4%86.5%
Justin MullinsG3222.34.43.31.453.4%53.9%11.3%29.6%56.0%
Brooks BarnhizerG1736.817.18.84.244.8%50.0%28.4%26.6%76.4%
K.J. WindhamG2916.75.61.12.046.3%49.6%20.5%30.5%80.0%
Angelo CiaravinoG3111.23.11.80.546.0%49.1%17.8%29.4%68.0%
Luke HungerF2512.52.82.41.239.3%40.4%16.9%11.1%62.5%
Jordan ClaytonG1020.74.72.42.541.3%43.6%16.2%28.0%100.0%
Keenan FitzmorrisC228.92.11.00.363.3%67.6%10.7%—90.0%
Blake SmithG183.20.30.20.20.0%51.7%7.1%0.0%75.0%
Blake BarkleyF42.81.01.00.040.0%40.0%23.9%0.0%—
Gus HurlburtF30.70.00.00.0——0.0%——

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games17-16

“Ours” is our projected margin for Northwestern, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-04vsLehighQ4#275W 90-46+19.2
11-09@DaytonQ1#69L 66-71-1.5
11-12vsUICQ4#164W 83-74+17.0
11-15vsEastern IllinoisQ4#328W 67-58+30.6
11-19vsMontana StateQ4#178W 72-69+17.9
11-22vsPepperdineQ4#225W 68-50+21.1
11-28nButlerQ2#70L 69-71+1.0
11-29nUNLVQ2#93W 66-61+3.3
12-03@IowaQ1#63L 79-80-2.5
12-06vsIllinoisQ1#17W 70-66-5.9
12-15nGeorgia TechQ3#106W 71-60+9.1
12-21vsDePaulQ3#119W 84-64+9.3
12-29vsNortheasternQ4#210W 85-60+15.8
01-02@Penn StateQ1#68L 80-84-1.7
01-05@PurdueQ1#14L 61-79-6.4
01-12vsMichigan StateQ1#12L 68-78-1.1
01-16vsMarylandQ1#15W 76-74-1.5
01-19@MichiganQ1#27L 76-80-10.3
01-22vsIndianaQ2#54W 79-70+4.9
01-26@IllinoisQ1#17L 74-83-12.7
01-29vsRutgersQ3#77L 72-79+7.8
02-01vsWisconsinQ1#19L 69-75-1.3
02-04vsUSCQ2#60W 77-75+4.3
02-08@WashingtonQ2#100L 71-76+1.4
02-11@OregonQ1#31L 75-81-4.6
02-16vsNebraskaQ2#52L 64-68+2.2
02-20@Ohio StateQ1#37W 70-49-8.3
02-25@MinnesotaQ2#89W 75-63+2.8
02-28vsIowaQ2#63W 68-57+5.5
03-03vsUCLAQ1#20L 69-73-1.3
03-08@MarylandQ1#15L 61-74-8.3
03-12nMinnesotaQ2#89W 72-64+5.8
03-13nWisconsinQ1#19L 63-70-4.6

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 364 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.