UL Monroe vs. South Alabama Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where South Alabama gets at UL Monroe: 28th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 123rd at stuffing runs at the line. UL Monroe projects no clear way in against South Alabama. South Alabama is also 47th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 121st.
How
USAattacks
ULM
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 25% this season, 2 games
USA13.8%#28 of 138ULM12.1%#123 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 24% this season, 2 games
USA13.6%#47 of 138ULM12.8%#121 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 24% this season, 2 games
USA4.15#54 of 138ULM4.47#127 of 138
The two teams
UL Monroe
UL Monroe runs it: Bryant Vincent's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The way in is 131st at throwing it, and they are 131st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+7.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UL Monroe has played 2 FBS opponents, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.
Soft spots
- Offensethrowing it-0.19#131 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.77#131 of 138
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air53%#131 of 138
South Alabama
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 28th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 137th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 128th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 22% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line13.8%#28 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.85#137 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.56#128 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.11#105 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1391, ULM Elo 1079 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA -10.2 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ULM132nd132ndUSAUSA99th138thULMThrough the air
ULM136th65thUSAUSA71st69thULMOn the ground
ULM135th82ndUSAUSA35th112thULMStaying on the field
ULM133rd48thUSAUSA32nd112thULMTaking care of it
ULM1st76thUSAUSA1st127thULM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouth Alabama leads 7–5 · South Alabama has won 4 straight · 17% have been one-possession games
| ULM | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | points / drive | 2.67 |
| 4.40 | allowed / drive | 2.80 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 0% |
| -12 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UL Monroe vs. South Alabama?
Gridpex's model favors South Alabama with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UL Monroe vs. South Alabama?
The model projects South Alabama by 10.2.
What time is UL Monroe vs. South Alabama and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →