South Alabama vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Kentucky gets at South Alabama: 68th in the push up front, against a unit 112th at holding the line of scrimmage. South Alabama projects no clear way in against Kentucky. Kentucky is also 68th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 107th.
How
UKattacks
USA
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
UK#68 of 138USA#112 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
UK#68 of 138USA#107 of 138
The two teams
South Alabama
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 32nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 112th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 107th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#112projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#107projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#107projected
Kentucky
Kentucky is in year 1 under Will Stein. The way in is 113th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 109th at keeping a clean pocket.
Kentucky has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#113projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#109projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1416, USA Elo 1390 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK -14.2 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USA119th72ndUKUK84th110thUSAThrough the air
USA119th84thUKUK75th65thUSAOn the ground
USA29th66thUKUK90th10thUSAStaying on the field
USA79th116thUKUK131st1stUSATaking care of it
USA1st14thUKUK95th53rdUSA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.8 (#84) | CORE overall | +5.1 (#51) |
| -0 / +5 | offense / defense | -1 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win South Alabama vs. Kentucky?
Gridpex's model favors Kentucky with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Alabama vs. Kentucky?
The model projects Kentucky by 14.2.
What time is South Alabama vs. Kentucky and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 26, 12:45 PM ET, at Kroger Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →