Ohio vs. South Alabama Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Ohio gets at South Alabama: 40th at running it, against a unit 105th at defending the run. Where South Alabama gets at Ohio: 54th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 118th at holding teams to field goals. Ohio is also 28th in the push up front, against a unit 78th.
How
OHIOattacks
USA
- 1
Run it
running it · 22% this season, 2 games
OHIO+0.16#40 of 138USA+0.11#105 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 21% this season, 2 games
OHIO3.28#28 of 138USA1.76#78 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · 22% this season, 2 games
OHIO+0.01#90 of 138USA+0.56#128 of 138
HowUSAattacksOHIO
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 24% this season, 2 games
USA4.15#54 of 138OHIO5.36#118 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · 24% this season, 2 games
USA+0.41#62 of 138OHIO+0.61#114 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 24% this season, 2 games
USA3.16#51 of 138OHIO3.15#101 of 138
The two teams
Ohio
Ohio is in year 1 under John Hauser. The strengths are offensive, led by 8th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 118th at closing out passing downs, and they are 118th at keeping everything in front of them.
Ohio has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line9.9%#8 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve54%#118 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.40#118 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points5.36#118 of 138
South Alabama
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 28th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 137th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 128th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 22% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line13.8%#28 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.85#137 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.56#128 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.11#105 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1391, OHIO Elo 1320 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA +4.6 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OHIO131st132ndUSAUSA99th126thOHIOThrough the air
OHIO128th65thUSAUSA71st126thOHIOOn the ground
OHIO80th82ndUSAUSA35th127thOHIOStaying on the field
OHIO46th48thUSAUSA32nd137thOHIOTaking care of it
OHIO21st76thUSAUSA1st108thOHIO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OHIO | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.4 (#126) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#86) |
| -3 / +14 | offense / defense | +8 / +12 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 2.67 |
| 3.32 | allowed / drive | 2.80 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 0% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Ohio vs. South Alabama?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio with a 62% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ohio vs. South Alabama?
The model projects Ohio by 4.6.
What time is Ohio vs. South Alabama and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET, at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →