Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Louisiana Tech gets at South Alabama: 1st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 137th at keeping everything in front of them. South Alabama projects no clear way in against Louisiana Tech. Louisiana Tech is also 73rd at throwing it, against a unit 128th.
How
LTattacks
USA
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 32% this season, 1 game
LT1.96#1 of 138USA1.85#137 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected · 1 game in
LT+0.52#73 of 138USA+0.56#128 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected · 1 game in
LT5.21#65 of 138USA3.30#102 of 138
The two teams
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is in year 5 under Sonny Cumbie, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 1st at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 119th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 116th at staying on schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana Tech has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 16% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.96#1 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss27.3%#11 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line28.9%#12 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.42#119 of 138
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air31%#116 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down32%#107 of 138
South Alabama
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 28th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 137th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 128th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 22% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line13.8%#28 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.85#137 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.56#128 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.11#105 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1391, LT Elo 1405 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA +1.4 (47% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
LT79th132ndUSAUSA99th46thLTThrough the air
LT79th65thUSAUSA71st77thLTOn the ground
LT114th82ndUSAUSA35th72ndLTStaying on the field
LT73rd48thUSAUSA32nd62ndLTTaking care of it
LT75th76thUSAUSA1st9thLT
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LT | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.2 (#81) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#86) |
| -14 / -11 | offense / defense | +8 / +12 |
| 0.54 | points / drive | 2.67 |
| 2.47 | allowed / drive | 2.80 |
| 62% | three-and-outs | 0% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama?
Gridpex's model favors Louisiana Tech with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama?
The model projects Louisiana Tech by 1.4.
What time is Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →