Sam Houston vs. Florida International Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Florida International gets at Sam Houston: 91st at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 135th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Sam Houston projects no clear way in against Florida International. Florida International is also 83rd at running it, against a unit 122nd.
How
FIUattacks
SHSU
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
FIU#91 of 138SHSU#135 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
FIU#83 of 138SHSU#122 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
FIU#98 of 138SHSU#135 of 138
The two teams
Sam Houston
Sam Houston is in year 2 under Phil Longo. The way in is 135th at throwing it, and they are 135th at surviving second and twelve.
Sam Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#135projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#135projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#135projected
Florida International
Florida International is in year 2 under Willie Simmons. The strengths are offensive, led by 23rd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 125th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 124th at holding the line of scrimmage.
Florida International has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#125projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#124projected
- Offensethrowing it#119projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1385, SHSU Elo 1164 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU -7.2 (68% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SHSU101st23rdFIUFIU111th79thSHSUThrough the air
SHSU18th9thFIUFIU31st56thSHSUOn the ground
SHSU135th68thFIUFIU125th115thSHSUStaying on the field
SHSU67th81stFIUFIU119th85thSHSUTaking care of it
SHSU31st118thFIUFIU95th118thSHSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SHSU | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.7 (#117) | CORE overall | -3.0 (#81) |
| -6 / +5 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 1.75 | points / drive | 1.11 |
| 2.18 | allowed / drive | 2.11 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| +17 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Sam Houston vs. Florida International?
Gridpex's model favors Florida International with a 68% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Sam Houston vs. Florida International?
The model projects Florida International by 7.2.
What time is Sam Houston vs. Florida International and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM ET, at Pitbull Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →