Tulsa vs. Sam Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsSHSU
- Q3 1:02SHSUS. Carpenter 39 yd FG GOOD23–17
- Q3 7:22TLSAT. Jones run for 81 yds, for a TD (O. Carey KICK)23–14
- Q3 10:10TLSAT. Lawyer run for 56 yds, for a TD (O. Carey PAT MISSED)16–14
- Q2 2:12TLSAO. Carey 41 yd FG GOOD10–14
- Q2 6:48SHSUL. Locke pass to J. Parker Jr. for 94 yds, for a TD (S. Carpenter KICK)7–14
- Q2 13:57TLSAT. Jones run for 3 yds, for a TD (O. Carey KICK)7–7
- Q1 12:02SHSUL. Locke pass to C. Reed for 39 yds, for a TD (S. Carpenter KICK)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SHSU won this through the air — that lane, not the scoreboard, was the story against TLSA. +0.01 vs -0.32 EPA/play
Tulsa beat Oklahoma State with its defense, and the one thing its offense does best is the one thing Sam Houston is built to take away at home.
Every thread about this game opens with 56-3, and that result is real: Tulsa hung it on Sam Houston in 2009, in Tulsa. That scoreline describes two rosters neither program still fields. Tulsa went 4-8 last season, Sam Houston went 2-10, the field belongs to Sam Houston this time, and a neutral read of the two teams separates them by less than a point. The 13.5 Tulsa is laying was priced off a single September afternoon.
- PassBaylor Hayes 16/29, 126 YDS
- RushTrequan Jones 9 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDamari Alston 5 REC, 39 YDS
- PassLandyn Locke 24/34, 316 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAlton McCaskill 14 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecJerrian Parker Jr. 2 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- Q2 6:48SHSU +26%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Locke pass complete short middle to #6 J.Parker caught at SAM19, for 94 yards to the TLS00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 10:10TLSA +22%
No Huddle #40 T.Lawyer rush right for 56 yards gain to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 13:57TLSA +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Jones rush right for 3 yards gain to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:22TLSA +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Jones rush middle for 81 yards gain to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 12:02SHSU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Locke pass complete short middle to #2 C.Reed caught at TLS36, for 39 yards to the TLS00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SAM UNS: Unsportsmanlike C…
- Q2 2:12TLSA +10%
#10 O.Carey field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. Sam Houston?
Tulsa 23, Sam Houston 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TLSA) was correct.
| TLSA | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 371 |
| 126 | Passing yards | 316 |
| 241 | Rushing yards | 55 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 4-6 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 16/33 | Comp/Att | 24/35 |
| 3.8 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 8-76 |
| 30:18 | Possession | 29:42 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:34 SHSU punt on 4th & 1 at SHSU 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
- TLSAEnd Of Quarter3 plays · -1 yds · from TLSA 19 · Q4 1:20−0.9 EPA+1% WP
- SHSUFumble17 plays · 48 yds · from SHSU 33 · Q4 7:56−6.5 EPA−11% WP
- TLSADowns10 plays · 22 yds · from TLSA 45 · Q4 11:31−1.1 EPA+3% WP
- SHSUDowns6 plays · 27 yds · from SHSU 28 · Q4 14:07+1.6 EPA−2% WP
- TLSAPunt3 plays · 0 yds · from TLSA 35 · Q3 1:02−0.9 EPA+1% WP
- SHSUField Goal13 plays · 59 yds · from SHSU 35 · Q3 7:16+4.8 EPA+5% WP
- TLSATouchdown2 plays · 89 yds · from TLSA 11 · Q3 7:40+0.6 EPA+20% WP
- SHSUPunt5 plays · 19 yds · from SHSU 35 · Q3 10:04−0.5 EPA
- TLSATouchdown11 plays · 80 yds · from TLSA 35 · Q3 14:56−0.6 EPA+20% WP
- SHSUEnd Of Half3 plays · 15 yds · from SHSU 33 · Q2 0:22+1.8 EPA
- TLSAPunt4 plays · 6 yds · from TLSA 20 · Q2 1:06−0.7 EPA
- SHSUPunt3 plays · 8 yds · from SHSU 35 · Q2 2:07−0.7 EPA
- TLSAField Goal11 plays · 44 yds · from TLSA 35 · Q2 6:43−3.3 EPA+8% WP
- SHSUTouchdown1 plays · 94 yds · from SHSU 6 · Q2 6:48+22% WP
- Q3 1:02SHSUS. Carpenter 39 yd FG GOOD23–17
- Q3 7:22TLSAT. Jones run for 81 yds, for a TD (O. Carey KICK)23–14
- Q3 10:10TLSAT. Lawyer run for 56 yds, for a TD (O. Carey PAT MISSED)16–14
- Q2 2:12TLSAO. Carey 41 yd FG GOOD10–14
- Q2 6:48SHSUL. Locke pass to J. Parker Jr. for 94 yds, for a TD (S. Carpenter KICK)7–14
- Q2 13:57TLSAT. Jones run for 3 yds, for a TD (O. Carey KICK)7–7
- Q1 12:02SHSUL. Locke pass to C. Reed for 39 yds, for a TD (S. Carpenter KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1164, TLSA Elo 1268 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SHSU +6.5 (34% to win) — 5.0 points clear of SHSU's market line of +11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TLSA | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 (#69) | CORE overall | -11.7 (#117) |
| -4 / -4 | offense / defense | -6 / +5 |
| 2.18 | points / drive | 1.75 |
| 0.91 | allowed / drive | 2.18 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +17 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Sam Houston's pass defense is the game's widest edge
Tulsa beat Oklahoma State with its defense, and the one thing its offense does best is the one thing Sam Houston is built to take away at home.
Tulsa wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Sam Houston, the more likely Sam Houston wins.
Sam Houston moved the ball better and lost anyway
Tulsa's 24-10 win over Oklahoma State was a defensive result. The offense scored on 33.3% of its 12 drives, went three-and-out on the same 33.3%, and averaged 28.5 yards a possession. Ten points allowed carried that afternoon, not the 24 scored. A Tulsa offense that goes three-and-out on 33.3% of its series is not the offense a 13.5-point number describes, and that afternoon is the only 2025 evidence anyone has on it.
Sam Houston lost 21-24 at Troy and did more with the ball than the scoreline suggests: 32.3 yards per drive across 12 possessions, three-and-out on only 25.0% of them. Both marks beat what Tulsa produced against Oklahoma State on the same weekend. Sam Houston's offense, the unit this number treats as the problem, sustained drives better than Tulsa's did, and it did it on the road rather than at home.
The preseason baseline still carries most of the load, and it leans Tulsa's way on last season's body of work: 23.2 points a game and 4-8, against Sam Houston's 17.8 and 2-10. Sam Houston was not the better team last November and this is not an argument that it was. It is an argument that 4-8 and 2-10 sit nowhere near two touchdowns apart, particularly with Sam Houston hosting.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Sam Houston are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
Tulsa's best route is the one Sam Houston closes
The widest unit gap on the field is Sam Houston's pass defense against Tulsa's passing game, and it belongs to Sam Houston. Baylor Hayes projects for 172 to 265 passing yards with a 70% chance of a touchdown pass, workable rather than commanding, and the receiving bands under him are narrow: Josh Smith 24 to 77 yards, Grayson Tempest 19 to 60, Micah Tease 16 to 50.
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward Sam Houston are battles it should win; toward Tulsa are ones Tulsa wins.
Josh Smith's 77-yard top end is the highest ceiling in that group, which describes a Tulsa passing game that distributes rather than one that features anybody. Against the Sam Houston pass defense that grades as this game's clearest advantage, Tulsa has no single matchup to force the ball toward when a drive stalls, and every throw Hayes completes has to be won on its own merits.
Tulsa's counter is the big-play edge, the one matchup where its offense grades above this Sam Houston defense. That makes the shape of Tulsa's day predictable: chunk gains or punts, with the 33.3% three-and-out rate from the Oklahoma State game as the price of missing. Explosives against a defense built to deny them produce a bumpy, low-possession afternoon, not the steady accumulation a 13.5-point cover requires.
Sam Houston has to score without the run game
Tulsa's front is the counterweight, and it is a real one. Its run defense and its short-yardage defense both grade clearly above Sam Houston's offense, which is exactly where Sam Houston's projected production lives. Alton McCaskill projects 32 to 62 rushing yards; Landan Brown 24 to 67 with a 37% chance of a touchdown. Neither back projects to a workhorse afternoon against that Tulsa front.
Landyn Locke projects 87 to 181 passing yards with a 50% chance of a touchdown pass, and the targets under him are modest: Chris Reed 21 to 67 with a 38% touchdown chance, Grady O'Neill 18 to 57, Tim Burns Jr. 14 to 46. No Sam Houston skill player projects to carry a 29-point afternoon on his own production, so the 29 has to come from drive count and field position.
That is the game Sam Houston already played at Troy: 32.3 yards a possession, three-and-out on 25.0% of its drives, 21 points anyway. Run it back at home against a Tulsa offense that went three-and-out on 33.3% of its series against Oklahoma State, and Sam Houston starts seeing short fields it never saw in Troy. Sam Houston's 21 last week reads as a floor in that version of the afternoon.
Neither quarterback has taken a snap this season
Hayes and Locke arrive with last season as the entire file: Hayes over 10 games, Locke over 6, and no 2025 snaps between them. Their projections describe roles rather than quality, since volume projects and snap-for-snap efficiency does not. Hayes at 172 to 265 yards is asked to move a team; Locke at 87 to 181 is asked to complement one. Nothing in either file separates Hayes from Locke by enough to build a side on.
Tulsa's cover needs a game it hasn't shown
Tulsa's route to 13.5 is a stack: the big plays finish as touchdowns instead of field position, the defense repeats its 10-points-allowed afternoon against an offense that just put 21 on the board in Troy, and Sam Houston's drives die early rather than stalling past midfield. This projection gives Tulsa a 19% chance of covering, the least achievable set of requirements on either side of the number.
Sam Houston's requirements are narrower: control the clock, keep the giveaway battle even, and stay inside a possession. The projection gives a one-score finish a 39% chance and the under a 27% chance, so points are expected against a 52.2 total, and Sam Houston at 32.3 yards a drive can help get there. Nothing on Sam Houston's list asks for an afternoon it has not already produced on the road.
Where our projection and the betting line differ — and by how much.
Drive length, not 2009, decides this one
Tulsa wins by turning its big-play edge into finished drives and by holding McCaskill and Brown inside the ranges they project into. Sam Houston wins by making Hayes throw into the one matchup Tulsa loses and by stringing together the possessions it already strung together at Troy. The 56-3 in 2009 tells you nothing about either roster now; the 21-24 at Troy seven days ago tells you plenty.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →