Sam Houston vs. Missouri State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Sam Houston gets at Missouri State: 43rd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 116th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Missouri State gets at Sam Houston: 2nd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 59th at keeping everything in front of them. Missouri State is also 89th at throwing it, against a unit 135th.
How
SHSUattacks
MOST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
SHSU#43 of 138MOST#116 of 138
HowMOSTattacksSHSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MOST#2 of 138SHSU#59 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
MOST#89 of 138SHSU#135 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
MOST#102 of 138SHSU#135 of 138
The two teams
Sam Houston
Sam Houston is in year 2 under Phil Longo. The way in is 135th at defending the pass, and they are 135th at closing out passing downs.
Sam Houston has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#135projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#135projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#134projected
Missouri State
Missouri State is in year 1 under Casey Woods. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 136th at keeping a clean pocket.
Missouri State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#2projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#136projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1284, SHSU Elo 1161 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST -13.9 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SHSU103rd76thMOSTMOST101st72ndSHSUThrough the air
SHSU16th59thMOSTMOST109th31stSHSUOn the ground
SHSU137th114thMOSTMOST87th127thSHSUStaying on the field
SHSU71st54thMOSTMOST96th47thSHSUTaking care of it
SHSU47th46thMOSTMOST74th129thSHSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SHSU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#87) | CORE overall | -16.2 (#125) |
| -3 / +1 | offense / defense | -10 / +6 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 0.00 |
| 2.29 | allowed / drive | 4.36 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 80% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Sam Houston vs. Missouri State?
Gridpex's model favors Missouri State with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Sam Houston vs. Missouri State?
The model projects Missouri State by 13.9.
What time is Sam Houston vs. Missouri State and what channel is it on?
Tue, Oct 27, 8:00 PM ET, at Plaster Sports Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →