Sam Houston vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Sam Houston gets at Liberty: 43rd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 96th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Liberty gets at Sam Houston: 55th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 129th at shutting down the ground game. Liberty is also 51st at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 116th.
How
SHSUattacks
LIB
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
SHSU#43 of 138LIB#96 of 138
HowLIBattacksSHSU
- 1
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
LIB#55 of 138SHSU#129 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
LIB#51 of 138SHSU#116 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
LIB#76 of 138SHSU#134 of 138
The two teams
Sam Houston
Sam Houston is in year 2 under Phil Longo. The way in is 135th at defending the pass, and they are 135th at closing out passing downs.
Sam Houston has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#135projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#135projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#134projected
Liberty
Liberty runs it: Jamey Chadwell's offenses have been run-leaning across 8 seasons. The way in is 119th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 116th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Liberty has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#119projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#116projected
- Defenserunning it#114projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1697, SHSU Elo 1161 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -15.9 (85% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SHSU103rd62ndLIBLIB109th72ndSHSUThrough the air
SHSU16th34thLIBLIB88th31stSHSUOn the ground
SHSU137th94thLIBLIB93rd127thSHSUStaying on the field
SHSU71st79thLIBLIB110th47thSHSUTaking care of it
SHSU47th46thLIBLIB47th129thSHSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SHSU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#87) | CORE overall | -4.6 (#89) |
| -3 / +1 | offense / defense | -1 / +4 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 1.44 |
| 2.29 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +13 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Sam Houston vs. Liberty?
Gridpex's model favors Liberty with a 85% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Sam Houston vs. Liberty?
The model projects Liberty by 15.9.
What time is Sam Houston vs. Liberty and what channel is it on?
Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM ET, at Williams Stadium (VA).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →