Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Texas Tech gets at Sam Houston: 12th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 135th at closing out passing downs. Sam Houston projects no clear way in against Texas Tech. Texas Tech is also 13th at throwing it, against a unit 135th.
How
TTUattacks
SHSU
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
TTU#12 of 138SHSU#135 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
TTU#13 of 138SHSU#135 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
TTU#12 of 138SHSU#133 of 138
The two teams
Sam Houston
Sam Houston is in year 2 under Phil Longo. The way in is 135th at defending the pass, and they are 135th at closing out passing downs.
Sam Houston has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#135projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#135projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#134projected
Texas Tech
Texas Tech throws it: Joey McGuire's offenses have been pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 1st at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+10.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −13.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas Tech has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#1projected
- Defenserunning it#1projected
- Defensefirst and second down#1projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1845, SHSU Elo 1161 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU -40.3 (100% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SHSU103rd69thTTUTTU94th72ndSHSUThrough the air
SHSU16th121stTTUTTU59th31stSHSUOn the ground
SHSU137th13thTTUTTU75th127thSHSUStaying on the field
SHSU71st54thTTUTTU47th47thSHSUTaking care of it
SHSU47th76thTTUTTU47th129thSHSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SHSU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#87) | CORE overall | +10.5 (#36) |
| -3 / +1 | offense / defense | +2 / -8 |
| 1.73 | points / drive | 2.69 |
| 2.29 | allowed / drive | 2.00 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +13 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech?
Gridpex's model favors Texas Tech with a 100% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech?
The model projects Texas Tech by 40.3.
What time is Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jones AT&T Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →