Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Western Kentucky gets at Sam Houston: 26th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 135th at holding teams to field goals. Where Sam Houston gets at Western Kentucky: 58th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 122nd at keeping everything in front of them. Western Kentucky is also 28th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 135th.
How
WKUattacks
SHSU
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
WKU#26 of 138SHSU#135 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
WKU#28 of 138SHSU#135 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
WKU#29 of 138SHSU#135 of 138
HowSHSUattacksWKU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
SHSU#58 of 138WKU#122 of 138
The two teams
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky throws it: Tyson Helton's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 7 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 26th at turning trips inside the 40 into points. The way in is 122nd at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −18.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Western Kentucky has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#26projected
- Defensefirst and second down#27projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#28projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#122projected
Sam Houston
Sam Houston is in year 2 under Phil Longo. The way in is 135th at throwing it, and they are 135th at surviving second and twelve.
Sam Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#135projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#135projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#135projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1164, WKU Elo 1224 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SHSU +10.5 (26% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WKU131st79thSHSUSHSU101st135thWKUThrough the air
WKU117th56thSHSUSHSU18th79thWKUOn the ground
WKU86th115thSHSUSHSU135th133rdWKUStaying on the field
WKU93rd85thSHSUSHSU67th129thWKUTaking care of it
WKU133rd118thSHSUSHSU31st30thWKU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WKU | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.8 (#118) | CORE overall | -11.7 (#117) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | -6 / +5 |
| 1.27 | points / drive | 1.75 |
| 4.46 | allowed / drive | 2.18 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +17 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Western Kentucky with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston?
The model projects Western Kentucky by 10.5.
What time is Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston and what channel is it on?
Wed, Oct 14, 8:00 PM ET, at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →