@ Liberty · Wk 3Win prob 10%Model +19.5Schedule & Results
OSUOhio StateL3-56✓Wk 2vsSTBRStony BrookW41-17✓Wk 3@LIBLiberty+19.510%Wk 4@
KENTKent State+8.628%Wk 5vs
TOLToledo+10.625%Wk 6@
NUNorthwestern+32.41%Wk 7@
BGSUBowling Green+3.342%Wk 8vs
SACSacramento State+13.520%Wk 10@
MASSMassachusetts-6.667%Wk 11vs
BUFBuffalo-1.454%Wk 12@
OHIOOhio+19.510%Wk 13vs
CMUCentral Michigan+2.743%Team Leaders
Keldric LusterPassing345 yds · 3 TD · 2 INT
TJ HortonRushing129 yds · 1 TD · 8.6 avg
Jabari SmithReceiving6 rec · 72 yds · 1 TD
Kaleb StewartTackles10 tackles · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sacks
Latest on Ball State
All news →Julian Sayin produced 10 of Ohio State's 17 explosive plays
Ohio State -50.8, and a 0% Cover Chance the Simulation Doesn't Support
Roster · 117 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Keldric Luster | QB | JR | 5'10" | 248 | McKinney, TX |
| 9 | Tyler Mizzell | QB | JR | 6'1" | 176 | Denver, NC |
| 13 | Khalel Wright | QB | FR | 6'1" | 194 | Charlotte, NC |
| 16 | Mason Atkins | QB | FR | 6'3" | 210 | North Aurora, IL |
| 18 | Bodie Derrer | QB | SO | 6'2" | 210 | Arcadia, IN |
| 0 | Elijah Jackson | RB | JR | 5'8" | 181 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 2 | Jalen Bonds | RB | FR | 6'0" | 220 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 4 | TJ Horton | RB | JR | 5'10" | 201 | Lexington, KY |
| 20 | Johnny Thompson Jr. | RB | JR | 5'11" | 198 | Canoga Park, CA |
| 21 | Anthony McMullen Jr. | RB | FR | 5'11" | 216 | Massillon, OH |
| 25 | Char'Rese Breveard | RB | FR | 5'8" | 175 | Elkhart, IN |
| 1 | Donovan Hamilton | WR | SO | 6'4" | 217 | Fishers, IN |
| 3 | Corey Thompson Jr. | WR | JR | 5'10" | 167 | San Diego, CA |
| 5 | Jabari Smith Jr. | WR | JR | 5'9" | 163 | Orlando, FL |
| 7 | CJ Nelson | WR | SR | 5'11" | 180 | North Richland Hills, TX |
| 10 | Jamarion McDougle | WR | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Deerfield Beach, FL |
| 11 | Isaiah Thacker | WR | JR | 5'11" | 196 | New Palestine, IN |
| 14 | Elisha Durham | WR | SO | 6'1" | 168 | West Bloomfield, MI |
| 15 | Tayshon Bardo | WR | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Elkhart, IN |
| 80 | Derion Talbert | WR | FR | 5'8" | 162 | Lexington, KY |
| 82 | TJ Byard | WR | SO | 6'1" | 180 | North Muskegon, MI |
| 83 | Eli Hohlt | WR | JR | 6'0" | 181 | — |
| 85 | Ace Cooper | WR | FR | 5'10" | 166 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 86 | DJ Young | WR | JR | 6'0" | 175 | Lafayette, IN |
| 8 | Mason Riggins | TE | FR | 6'5" | 255 | Zionsville, IN |
| 12 | Alex Scherle | TE | SR | 6'4" | 234 | Rochester Hills, MI |
| 41 | Zach Becker | TE | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Vernon Hills, IL |
| 42 | AJ Seymour | TE | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Brookfield, WI |
| 44 | Lucas Andresen | TE | FR | 6'3" | 210 | Chicago, IL |
| 81 | Leo Collins | TE | JR | 6'3" | 233 | Evansville, IN |
| 84 | Tate Hoover | TE | JR | 6'2" | 254 | Manhattan, KS |
| 87 | Cole Coonrod | TE | JR | 6'5" | 243 | Manhattan, KS |
| 89 | Sean Ward | TE | SR | 6'5" | 255 | Cleveland, OH |
| 54 | Evan Downer | OL | FR | 6'4" | 285 | Palatine, IL |
| 55 | Michael Varon | OL | FR | 6'3" | 308 | Palatine, IL |
| 56 | Jacob Jeudy | OL | SR | 6'3" | 289 | Miami, FL |
| 57 | Nolan Cicero | OL | FR | 6'4" | 304 | Crown Point, IN |
| 60 | Blake Scriber | OL | SO | 6'2" | 287 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 61 | Luke Dalton | OL | SR | 6'5" | 300 | Crystal Lake, IL |
| 62 | Sam Spicer | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Mount Juliet, TN |
| 63 | Maxwell Wentz | OL | SR | 6'4" | 295 | Huntington, WV |
| 65 | Ryan Eldridge | OL | FR | 6'7" | 289 | Goshen, IN |
| 66 | Chris Hood | OL | SR | 6'10" | 327 | Kendallville, IN |
| 67 | Jackson Ruess | OL | JR | 6'4" | 302 | — |
| 68 | Grant Haworth | OL | SO | 6'2" | 299 | — |
| 70 | Tristan Cook | OL | SO | 6'6" | 291 | Lexington, KY |
| 71 | Brady Barrowman | OL | FR | 6'4" | 304 | Minooka, IL |
| 72 | Brady Weber | OL | FR | 6'5" | 275 | Greenwood, IN |
| 73 | Cole Mosier | OL | JR | 6'4" | 302 | Columbia City, IN |
| 75 | Zach Bandy | OL | SO | 6'5" | 293 | Avon, IN |
| 76 | CJ Zeltwanger | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | West Lafayette, IN |
| 77 | Misael Sandoval | OL | JR | 6'6" | 332 | Chula Vista, CA |
| 78 | Kaden Mayle | OL | FR | 6'5" | 274 | Fremont, OH |
| 79 | Zion Haney | OL | FR | 6'4" | 280 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 3 | George Okorie | DE | SO | 6'3" | 253 | Vancouver, BC |
| 7 | Ben Marsh | DE | JR | 6'2" | 247 | Hilliard, OH |
| 10 | Austin Stief | DE | SR | 6'4" | 246 | Orlando, FL |
| 39 | Maverick Gracio | DE | JR | 6'4" | 252 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 91 | Jamar Birden | DE | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Waycross, GA |
| 51 | CJ Sanchez | DT | FR | 6'5" | 250 | North Judson, IN |
| 52 | Michael Thacker | DT | FR | 6'0" | 304 | New Palestine, IN |
| 54 | Spencer Vaka | DT | JR | 6'1" | 299 | Shawnee, KS |
| 55 | Dominic Infelise | DT | FR | 6'4" | 285 | New Lenox, IL |
| 56 | Ameir Glenn | DT | SO | 6'1" | 303 | Fairburn, GA |
| 57 | Reese Hill | DT | SO | 6'3" | 302 | Greenfield, IN |
| 74 | Khristian Zachary | DT | SR | 6'3" | 303 | Fayetteville, GA |
| 90 | Lincoln Mason | DT | FR | 6'6" | 285 | Wilsonville, OR |
| 93 | Mason Holbrook | DT | FR | 6'2" | 268 | Hamilton, OH |
| 94 | Ka'Shawn Thomas | DT | JR | 6'1" | 292 | Brunswick, GA |
| 95 | Keilan Smith | DT | JR | 6'2" | 326 | Pickerington, OH |
| 96 | Joshua Coleman | DT | FR | 6'2" | 300 | Americus, GA |
| 97 | Myles Hancock | DT | SO | 6'1" | 280 | Corona, CA |
| 99 | Kendrick Gilbert | DT | JR | 6'4" | 271 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 6 | Cincear Lewis | LB | SR | 6'2" | 227 | Kalamazoo, MI |
| 9 | Justin Thomas | LB | SR | 6'0" | 242 | Flossmoor, IL |
| 15 | Jovan Clark | LB | FR | 5'10" | 203 | Chicago, IL |
| 16 | Kaleb Stewart | LB | SO | 6'0" | 248 | Broward County, FL |
| 25 | Mikeah Webster | LB | FR | 6'1" | 243 | Sheridan, IN |
| 26 | Lucas Szymborski | LB | FR | 6'1" | 221 | Crown Point, IN |
| 27 | Gavin Forsha | LB | SR | 6'2" | 224 | Nashville, TN |
| 31 | Jared Badie | LB | SR | 6'3" | 237 | Aurora, IL |
| 36 | Cole Mynett | LB | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Muncie, IN |
| 40 | Gannon Knowles | LB | FR | 6'0" | 210 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 42 | Layton Starks | LB | SO | 6'4" | 237 | Versailles, KY |
| 48 | Sam Feeney | LB | SO | 6'2" | 205 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 50 | Carsen Burckhardt | LB | FR | 5'10" | 223 | Long Lake, MN |
| 0 | Derek Fields | DB | JR | 6'1" | 195 | Saint Charles, MO |
| 1 | Sterling Smith | DB | JR | 6'0" | 201 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 2 | Tobi Adewoyin | DB | SO | 5'11" | 189 | Atlanta, GA |
| 4 | Willizhuan Yates | DB | JR | 6'0" | 175 | Springboro, OH |
| 5 | Chris Jackson | DB | SR | 5'11" | 164 | San Diego, CA |
| 8 | Avery Stuart | DB | JR | 6'1" | 204 | Montgomery, AL |
| 11 | Donovan Lanier | DB | FR | 6'0" | 176 | Winter Garden, FL |
| 12 | Deondre Shepherd | DB | SO | 5'11" | 192 | McKinney, TX |
| 13 | Kamron Chamble | DB | FR | 5'11" | 184 | Port Orange, FL |
| 14 | Anthony Pinnace | DB | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Ypsilanti, MI |
| 17 | Kamari Williams | DB | SO | 6'2" | 180 | Baltimore, MD |
| 18 | Cedric Franklin II | DB | SO | 6'0" | 193 | Mableton, GA |
| 19 | Zyon Hill | DB | FR | 6'4" | 200 | Fishers, IN |
| 20 | Sebastian Moore | DB | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 21 | Dianté Griffin | DB | SR | 5'9" | 187 | Lima, OH |
| 22 | Gavin Yates-Lyons | DB | FR | 6'2" | 175 | Greenville, FL |
| 23 | Jordan Suggs | DB | SO | 6'0" | 169 | O'Fallon, IL |
| 24 | Gabe Aramboles | DB | FR | 5'11" | 224 | Westfield, IN |
| 28 | Stone Perkins | DB | FR | 5'11" | 197 | Louisville, KY |
| 29 | Micah Lillard | DB | SO | 6'1" | 196 | Lafayette, IN |
| 33 | Quentavius Scandrett | DB | SR | 6'3" | 210 | Clayton, GA |
| 35 | Drew Bostic | DB | FR | 5'9" | 175 | Brownsburg, IN |
| 38 | Jayden Bernavil | DB | JR | 5'7" | 188 | — |
| 45 | Cole Earlewine | DB | JR | 5'11" | 207 | Fishers, IN |
| 37 | Hudson Fiene | PK | JR | 5'10" | 180 | Yorkville, IL |
| 38 | Brody Boehm | PK | SO | 6'1" | 208 | Westfield, IN |
| 98 | Carson Holmer | PK | SR | 6'1" | 210 | Avon, IN |
| 19 | Lachlan Mathieson | P | FR | 6'2" | 195 | Melbourne, VIC |
| 92 | Cole Stumbaugh | P | SO | 6'2" | 223 | — |
| 34 | Coby Tripp | LS | FR | 5'11" | 202 | Spring Arbor, MI |
| 45 | Caden Britton | LS | SR | 5'10" | 208 | New Albany, OH |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Ball State is in year 2 under Mike Uremovich. The strengths are offensive, led by 13th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at throwing it, and they are 137th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Ball State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#13projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#137projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#137projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.98#79
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.21 / 3.10
- Power / stuff (off)
- 66.7% / 14.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 14.5%#92
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 8.0% / 6.5%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.11#120 | 0.14#88 | 0.46#85 |
| Defense | 0.19#129 | 0.21#87 | 0.61#103 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.027th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.382nd
- Offense success rate30%3rd
- Defense success rate allowed47%9th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs34%2nd
- Offense success — passing downs25%18th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs54%7th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs28%46th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.481st
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.417th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.044th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.588th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.13rd
- Defense line yards allowed3.117th
- Offense highlight yards2.284th
- Defense highlight yards allowed3.61st
- Offense power success0.337th
- Defense power success allowed0.8818th
- Offense stuff rate0.2510th
- Defense stuff rate0.2146th
Third down
- Third down conversion25%6th
- Third down distance faced9.22nd
- Third down conversion allowed42%31st
- Third down distance forced6.623rd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.119th
- Net success rate — second half-0.231st
Drives
- Points per drive0.275th
- Points per drive allowed4.74th
- Average starting field position2955th
- Opponent starting field position2487th
- Available yards gained19%3rd
- Available yards allowed71%10th
- Scoring opportunities per drive73%36th
- Scoring opportunities allowed92%18th
- Points per scoring opportunity0.384th
- Points allowed per opportunity5.14th
- Three-and-out rate55%7th
- Three-and-outs forced17%26th
Roster
- Returning usage17%17th
- Returning EPA5.64th
- Team talent composite56418th
- Recruiting class rank11318th
- Recruiting class points17018th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.079 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 64.7%
- Expected, given the spots
- 58.4%
- Over expected
- +6.3
- Fourth down vs peers
- -20
- Fourth down vs the model
- -33
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Ball State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Ball State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 3.4 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 2022 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 4.6 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 4.2 | +1.8 |
| 2020 | 7-1 | 6-1 | 88% | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 2-10 | 0-8 | 17% | 2.4 | -0.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 4.5-7.6. Wins the Mid-American in 0.8%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
up 0.0 points since preseason — lost 3-56 to Ohio State against an expected margin of −60, so +7.2 against the number.
- The Mid-American takes 0.07 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
Ball State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3at Liberty0.0
- wk12at Ohio0.0
- wk5vs Toledo0.0
- wk7at Bowling Green0.0
- wk11vs Buffalo0.0
- wk13vs Central Michigan0.0
Who to root for
Games Ball State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk9Texas State over Boise State0.0
- wk7UL Monroe over Louisiana Tech0.0
- wk3Florida State over Alabama0.0
- wk9Stanford over Louisville0.0
- wk13Charlotte over Navy0.0
- wk13UAB over North Texas0.0
Mid-American
0-0 in league play, projected 3.3-4.711 of 13 by title oddsThe Mid-American sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk5Toledo at Ball State2.9
- wk12Ball State at Ohio2.7
- wk6Ball State at Northwestern2.4
- wk11Buffalo at Ball State1.9
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mid-American race →
If not the playoff, then
Ball State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.9% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl6.2%
- Arizona Bowl5.8%
- Salute to Veterans Bowl4.8%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl2.6%
- 68 Ventures Bowl1.9%
- Boca Raton Bowl1.5%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 6 have sent Ball State a player since 2010 — 13 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Ball State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.