Ball State vs. Massachusetts Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Neither side projects a clear way in. Ball State and Massachusetts rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest at hitting chunk plays — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
Ball State
Ball State is in year 2 under Mike Uremovich. The strengths are offensive, led by 13th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at throwing it, and they are 137th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Ball State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#13projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#137projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#137projected
Massachusetts
Massachusetts is in year 2 under Joe Harasymiak. The strengths are defensive, led by 23rd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 138th at throwing it, and they are 138th at moving the ball on the ground.
Massachusetts has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#138projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#138projected
- Offensefirst and second down#138projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MASS Elo 1076, BALL Elo 1112 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MASS +6.6 (33% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BALL119th66thMASSMASS35th131stBALLThrough the air
BALL103rd103rdMASSMASS105th131stBALLOn the ground
BALL95th37thMASSMASS65th129thBALLStaying on the field
BALL129th22ndMASSMASS94th66thBALLTaking care of it
BALL48th9thMASSMASS1st46thBALL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BALL | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| -23.0 (#133) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#122) |
| -16 / +7 | offense / defense | -10 / +6 |
| 0.27 | points / drive | 3.70 |
| 4.67 | allowed / drive | 1.75 |
| 55% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Ball State vs. Massachusetts?
Gridpex's model favors Ball State with a 67% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ball State vs. Massachusetts?
The model projects Ball State by 6.6.
What time is Ball State vs. Massachusetts and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →