Ball State vs. Ohio Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ball State gets at Ohio: 13th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 105th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Ohio gets at Ball State: 26th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 125th at generating havoc. Ohio is also 32nd at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 125th.
How
BALLattacks
OHIO
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
BALL#13 of 138OHIO#105 of 138
HowOHIOattacksBALL
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
OHIO#26 of 138BALL#125 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
OHIO#32 of 138BALL#125 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
OHIO#32 of 138BALL#112 of 138
The two teams
Ball State
Ball State is in year 2 under Mike Uremovich. The strengths are offensive, led by 13th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at throwing it, and they are 137th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Ball State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#13projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#137projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#137projected
Ohio
Ohio is in year 1 under John Hauser. The strengths are offensive, led by 14th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 105th at keeping everything in front of them.
Ohio has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#14projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#26projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#105projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1320, BALL Elo 1112 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -19.5 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
BALL119th127thOHIOOHIO131st132ndBALLThrough the air
BALL103rd126thOHIOOHIO129th131stBALLOn the ground
BALL98th126thOHIOOHIO83rd128thBALLStaying on the field
BALL129th137thOHIOOHIO46th67thBALLTaking care of it
BALL47th109thOHIOOHIO21st46thBALL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBall State leads 16–13 · 38% have been one-possession games
| BALL | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -23.0 (#133) | CORE overall | -16.4 (#126) |
| -16 / +7 | offense / defense | -3 / +14 |
| 0.27 | points / drive | 2.00 |
| 4.67 | allowed / drive | 3.32 |
| 55% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Ball State vs. Ohio?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio with a 90% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ball State vs. Ohio?
The model projects Ohio by 19.5.
What time is Ball State vs. Ohio and what channel is it on?
Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ET, at Peden Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →