Stony Brook vs. Ball State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
STONTeam statsBALL
- Q4 2:17BALLTJ Horton 54 Yd Run (Brody Boehm Kick)17–41
- Q4 2:26STONJeremiah Coney 66 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–34
- Q4 3:03BALLJalen Bonds 49 Yd Run (Brody Boehm Kick)11–34
- Q4 3:18STONJeremiah Coney 3 Yd Run (Rayden Aphayvong Pass to Quinn Boyd for Two-Point Conversion)11–27
- Q4 6:00BALLBrody Boehm 30 Yd Field Goal 3–27
- Q4 10:36BALLBrody Boehm 38 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 3:05STONMichael Mannino 45 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 6:03BALLJalen Bonds 23 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)0–21
- Q2 9:23BALLJabari Smith 23 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)0–14
- Q1 1:41BALLTate Hoover 3 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = STON ahead, below = BALL ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassQuinn Boyd 22/35, 147 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJeremiah Coney 9 CAR, 89 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSeth Sweitzer 7 REC, 50 YDS
- PassKeldric Luster 27/32, 256 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTJ Horton 9 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJabari Smith 6 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Stony Brook vs. Ball State?
Stony Brook 17, Ball State 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BALL) was correct.
| STON | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 330 | Total yards | 482 |
| 147 | Passing yards | 256 |
| 183 | Rushing yards | 226 |
| 15 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 22/36 | Comp/Att | 27/32 |
| 4.1 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-36 | Penalties | 11-99 |
| 26:53 | Possession | 33:07 |
- Q4 2:17BALLTJ Horton 54 Yd Run (Brody Boehm Kick)17–41
- Q4 2:26STONJeremiah Coney 66 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–34
- Q4 3:03BALLJalen Bonds 49 Yd Run (Brody Boehm Kick)11–34
- Q4 3:18STONJeremiah Coney 3 Yd Run (Rayden Aphayvong Pass to Quinn Boyd for Two-Point Conversion)11–27
- Q4 6:00BALLBrody Boehm 30 Yd Field Goal 3–27
- Q4 10:36BALLBrody Boehm 38 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 3:05STONMichael Mannino 45 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 6:03BALLJalen Bonds 23 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)0–21
- Q2 9:23BALLJabari Smith 23 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)0–14
- Q1 1:41BALLTate Hoover 3 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects BALL -12 (76% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →