Sacramento State vs. Ball State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Sacramento State gets at Ball State: 57th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 125th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Ball State gets at Sacramento State: 13th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 95th at keeping everything in front of them. Sacramento State is also 65th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 123rd.
How
SACattacks
BALL
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
SAC#57 of 138BALL#125 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
SAC#65 of 138BALL#123 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
SAC#67 of 138BALL#125 of 138
HowBALLattacksSAC
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
BALL#13 of 138SAC#95 of 138
The two teams
Sacramento State
Sacramento State is in year 1 under Alonzo Carter. No unit here sits far enough from the national average to build a plan around — nothing to lean on, and nothing obvious to attack.
Sacramento State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Ball State
Ball State is in year 2 under Mike Uremovich. The strengths are offensive, led by 13th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 137th at throwing it, and they are 137th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Ball State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#13projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#137projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#137projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#137projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BALL Elo 1112, SAC Elo 1324 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BALL +13.5 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SAC120th132ndBALLBALL119th99thSACThrough the air
SAC91st131stBALLBALL103rd93rdSACOn the ground
SAC110th128thBALLBALL98th75thSACStaying on the field
SAC117th67thBALLBALL129th37thSACTaking care of it
SAC124th46thBALLBALL47th76thSAC
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SAC | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.4 (#131) | CORE overall | -23.0 (#133) |
| -14 / +7 | offense / defense | -16 / +7 |
| 0.59 | points / drive | 0.27 |
| 2.75 | allowed / drive | 4.67 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 55% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Sacramento State vs. Ball State?
Gridpex's model favors Sacramento State with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Sacramento State vs. Ball State?
The model projects Sacramento State by 13.5.
What time is Sacramento State vs. Ball State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Scheumann Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →