#9Trey Ragas

RB·Louisiana·2020 20182.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Trey Ragas is a 2-year Explosive Back for Louisiana. Trey's 2020 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 142 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Trey Ragas's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

760 Rush yards10 Rush TD131 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

9 Receptions106 Rec yards2 Rec TD11.8 Yards/rec

Returns

4 Kick returns46 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency63
Volume56
Explosiveness56
Consistency77
Receiving39

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.27 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.59 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Texas State (SP+ -13).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	@Iowa State	W31-14	13.3	14	49	3.5	1	—	—	—	0.13
3	@Georgia State	W34-31	-5.7	8	44	5.5	1	—	—	—	0.30
4	vsGeorgia Southern	W20-18	0.2	15	52	3.5	1	4	54	0	0.27
7	vsCoastal Carolina	L27-30	6.6	10	77	7.7	0	—	—	—	0.11
8	@UAB	W24-20	6.3	6	18	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.18
9	@Texas State	W44-34	-13.4	19	131	6.9	3	1	8	0	0.59
10	vsArkansas State	W27-20	-6.5	12	75	6.3	0	1	8	0	0.17
11	vsSouth Alabama	W38-10	-11.3	10	78	7.8	0	1	25	1	0.49
13	@UL Monroe	W70-20	-18.4	11	95	8.6	1	1	3	0	0.56
14	@App State	W24-21	10.3	12	43	3.6	2	1	8	1	0.47
1	vsUTSA	W31-24	-9.6	14	98	7.0	1	—	—	—	0.30

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

19.6%

Passing plays

4.2%

Rushing plays

31.1%

Standard downs

22.3%

Passing downs

13.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.33
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.93 / 0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Louisiana	2.3	0.300	—	60.3
2020	Louisiana	2.8	0.380	+0.08	53.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.