#9Trey Ragas

RB·Louisiana·2020 20182.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Trey Ragas is a 2-year Featured Back for Louisiana. Trey's 2018 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 221 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Trey Ragas's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1181 Rush yards8 Rush TD207 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions229 Rec yards2 Rec TD9.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume75
Explosiveness54
Consistency68
Receiving59

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.26 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.00 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Mississippi State (SP+ 23).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsGrambling	W49-17	—	13	142	10.9	1	—	—	—	0.24
3	@Mississippi State	L10-56	23.2	7	49	7.0	0	3	46	0	1.00
4	vsCoastal Carolina	L28-30	-17.2	15	103	6.9	1	2	17	0	0.55
5	@Alabama	L14-56	36.3	16	111	6.9	1	—	—	—	0.50
6	@Texas State	W42-27	-16.4	21	100	4.8	1	1	5	0	0.16
7	vsNew Mexico State	W66-38	-20.2	18	94	5.2	0	3	48	1	0.45
8	@App State	L17-27	11.9	18	81	4.5	1	1	2	0	-0.02
9	vsArkansas State	W47-43	1.2	18	54	3.0	1	4	19	0	0.02
10	@Troy	L16-26	2.6	18	106	5.9	2	2	1	0	0.22
11	vsGeorgia State	W36-22	-20.4	4	32	8.0	0	3	23	0	0.50
12	vsSouth Alabama	W48-38	-17.7	10	53	5.3	0	—	—	—	-0.15
13	@UL Monroe	W31-28	-10.9	23	115	5.0	0	3	27	1	0.34
14	@App State	L19-30	11.9	16	101	6.3	0	2	26	0	0.27
1	vsTulane	L24-41	-3.5	10	40	4.0	0	1	15	0	-0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.1%

Passing plays

8.4%

Rushing plays

39.1%

Standard downs

30.3%

Passing downs

16.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Louisiana	2.3	0.300	—	60.3
2020	Louisiana	2.8	0.380	+0.08	53.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.