vs UAB · Wk 3Win prob 51%Model -0.3Schedule & Results
USCUSCL30-49✓Wk 3vsUABUAB-0.351%Wk 4@
CLTCharlotte-6.666%Wk 5vs
ARSTArkansas State-9.773%Wk 6@
LTLouisiana Tech+6.136%Wk 7vs
TROYTroy-5.965%Wk 8@
USMSouthern Miss+8.630%Wk 10vs
USASouth Alabama-6.666%Wk 11@
ULMUL Monroe-4.662%Wk 12vs
CCUCoastal Carolina-14.382%Wk 13@
GASTGeorgia State-4.461%Team Leaders
D'Wayne' WinfieldPassing401 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT- D'Wayne' WinfieldRushing175 yds · 3 TD · 8.0 avg
Russell BabineauxReceiving7 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD
Collin JacobTackles17 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Louisiana
All news →Louisiana can throw on USC, but not push
D'Wayne' Winfield produced eight of Louisiana's eleven explosive plays
Roster · 105 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Coleman Carter | QB | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Natchez, MS |
| 7 | Lunch Winfield | QB | JR | 6'2" | 225 | Lutcher, LA |
| 11 | Daniel Beale | QB | SO | 6'2" | 206 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 13 | Alex Munoz | QB | FR | 5'10" | 195 | Lafayette, LA |
| 16 | Sam Altmann | QB | SO | 6'3" | 208 | Lafayette, LA |
| 0 | Darrell Smith | RB | FR | 5'8" | 200 | Picayune, MS |
| 20 | JJ Garner | RB | FR | 5'10" | 210 | Timpson, TX |
| 21 | Ke'Rynn Smith | RB | FR | 5'7" | 173 | Metairie, LA |
| 22 | Anthony Reagan Jr. | RB | JR | 5'9" | 185 | Woodbury, NJ |
| 24 | Steven Blanco | RB | SO | 5'9" | 215 | Saint Martinville, LA |
| 29 | Owen Morris | RB | FR | 5'9" | 170 | New Iberia, LA |
| 2 | Rahji Dennis | WR | SO | 5'10" | 175 | New Orleans, LA |
| 4 | Trenton Chaney | WR | FR | 5'9" | 178 | Lutcher, LA |
| 6 | Shelton Sampson Jr. | WR | JR | 6'4" | 206 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 8 | Jaydon Johnson | WR | SR | 6'2" | 235 | Missouri City, TX |
| 9 | KeDarius Wade | WR | JR | 6'4" | 200 | Jackson, MS |
| 10 | Russell Babineaux | WR | FR | 5'9" | 178 | Lafayette, LA |
| 15 | Ja'Corian Norris | WR | SO | 6'2" | 200 | Pineville, LA |
| 17 | Landon Strother | WR | SO | 6'1" | 197 | Lafayette, LA |
| 80 | Jayden Lewis | WR | FR | 6'4" | 185 | Cecilia, LA |
| 85 | Landon Baptiste | WR | JR | 6'4" | 180 | Lafayette, LA |
| 87 | Kristion Brooks | WR | FR | 6'2" | 176 | Zachary, LA |
| 18 | Khristian Mackintrush | TE | FR | 6'2" | 231 | McKinney, TX |
| 43 | Aiden Falgout | TE | FR | 6'1" | 235 | Lafayette, LA |
| 44 | Teddy Gawlik | TE | SO | 6'2" | 230 | Houma, LA |
| 46 | Emiliano Soldevilla | TE | JR | 6'3" | 246 | Houston, TX |
| 82 | Quandre Coates | TE | FR | 6'4" | 257 | Anahuac, TX |
| 83 | Brock Chappell | TE | SR | 6'5" | 252 | Holly Springs, NC |
| 86 | Jerry Birdlow | TE | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Slidell, LA |
| 88 | Caden Jensen | TE | JR | 6'6" | 265 | Flower Mound, TX |
| 50 | Cooper Fordham | OL | JR | 6'2" | 295 | Ponte Vedra, FL |
| 52 | Ryder Bentley | OL | SO | 6'6" | 300 | Monroe, LA |
| 53 | Gunnar Goodwin | OL | FR | 6'4" | 296 | Corinth, MS |
| 55 | Baylynn Williams | OL | FR | 6'5" | 318 | Palestine, TX |
| 57 | Zay Alexander | OL | SO | 6'7" | 322 | Tupelo, MS |
| 58 | Trey Shaw | OL | FR | 6'3" | 310 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 59 | Andrew Martinez | OL | JR | 6'3" | 306 | Metairie, LA |
| 60 | Jackson Hammond | OL | SO | 6'0" | 300 | Lafayette, LA |
| 61 | Jayce Mitchell | OL | SO | 6'3" | 322 | Destrehan, LA |
| 65 | Xzavier Brown | OL | JR | 6'6" | 320 | Ashdown, AR |
| 66 | Colin Harrington | OL | FR | 6'7" | 275 | Richland, WA |
| 67 | Jayden Michael | OL | FR | 6'4" | 327 | Lutcher, LA |
| 69 | Jai'Vale Mays-Hudson | OL | FR | 6'4" | 300 | Daphne, AL |
| 71 | George Jackson | OL | SR | 6'5" | 315 | Stone Mountain, GA |
| 72 | J'Marion Gooch | OL | JR | 6'7" | 308 | Gallatin, TN |
| 73 | Jayden McAllister | OL | FR | 6'4" | 297 | Missouri City, TX |
| 74 | Drake Perry | OL | FR | 6'1" | 325 | Lafayette, LA |
| 75 | Kaden Moreau | OL | SR | 6'4" | 305 | Pineville, LA |
| 76 | Matthew Broussard | OL | JR | 6'4" | 313 | Thibodaux, LA |
| 77 | Jakoby Isom | OL | SO | 6'1" | 318 | Houston, TX |
| 78 | Michael Bowens Jr. | OL | FR | 6'5" | 318 | Brewton, AL |
| 79 | David Baker | OL | FR | 6'4" | 379 | New Orleans, LA |
| 9 | Lance Williams | DE | JR | 6'3" | 233 | New Orleans, LA |
| 17 | Tito Chikere | DE | SR | 6'3" | 247 | Sugar Land, TX |
| 41 | Chase Edwards | DE | JR | 6'7" | 295 | Houston, TX |
| 0 | Priest Ashe | DL | SO | 6'4" | 235 | Crowley, TX |
| 31 | Ty Dominique | DL | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Slidell, LA |
| 68 | Fitzgerald West Jr. | DL | SR | 6'2" | 300 | Lafayette, LA |
| 91 | Jordan Pinnock | DL | FR | 6'3" | 236 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 93 | Brodrick Stewart | DL | JR | 6'1" | 305 | Arlington, TX |
| 95 | Maxie Baudoin IV | DL | SR | 6'5" | 300 | Youngsville, LA |
| 96 | Chase Howard | DL | FR | 6'3" | 260 | Blount County, AL |
| 97 | Xavier Waters | DL | FR | 6'1" | 315 | Houston, TX |
| 98 | Jeramiah Holts | DL | SO | 6'5" | 245 | Vinton, LA |
| 99 | Ashton Wright | DL | SO | 6'4" | 298 | Mobile, AL |
| 2 | Ashley Williams | LB | JR | 6'5" | 260 | Zachary, LA |
| 3 | Micah Johnson | LB | JR | 6'0" | 232 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 4 | Princeton Malbrue | LB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Lafayette, LA |
| 6 | Conor McPherson | LB | SO | 6'2" | 219 | Montgomery, AL |
| 7 | Ethan Veal | LB | SO | 6'0" | 215 | Zachary, LA |
| 15 | Na'Tori Brown | LB | SO | 6'5" | 248 | Southaven, MS |
| 16 | Kailep Edwards | LB | SR | 6'0" | 220 | New Orleans, LA |
| 33 | AJ Spencer | LB | FR | 6'4" | 205 | Houston, TX |
| 36 | Devin Franklin | LB | FR | 6'5" | 210 | Oak Grove, LA |
| 37 | Harrison Kidder | LB | FR | 6'0" | 198 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 44 | Jake St. Andre | LB | SR | 6'0" | 220 | — |
| 45 | Patrick Gosslee | LB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Shreveport, LA |
| 51 | Hayden Darbonne | LB | JR | 6'1" | 235 | Eunice, LA |
| 80 | Lester Jones | LB | JR | 6'3" | 235 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 10 | Avery Demery | CB | SO | 6'2" | 195 | Manvel, TX |
| 11 | Brent Gordon Jr. | CB | SO | 5'11" | 200 | Cecilia, LA |
| 13 | Curley Reed III | CB | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Lake Charles, LA |
| 18 | Cam Riley | CB | FR | 5'11" | 170 | Monroe, LA |
| 20 | Braylon Walker | CB | FR | 5'9" | 170 | Lafayette, LA |
| 22 | Kevin Malone | CB | FR | 5'9" | 172 | Prichard, AL |
| 23 | Jeremiah Moses | CB | JR | 6'0" | 186 | Shreveport, LA |
| 30 | Julius Harper | CB | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Prentiss, MS |
| 47 | Maurice Brown Jr. | CB | FR | 6'0" | 173 | Lafayette, LA |
| 25 | Jayden Gloston | DB | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Prairieville, LA |
| 8 | Kody Jackson | S | JR | 6'1" | 200 | Shreveport, LA |
| 19 | Luke Green | S | FR | 6'1" | 172 | Lafayette, LA |
| 21 | Maurion Eleam | S | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Monroe, LA |
| 24 | Lake Bates | S | SO | 5'11" | 190 | Stonewall, LA |
| 26 | Kerry Wilson | S | JR | 6'0" | 200 | Destrehan, LA |
| 27 | Edrick Williams | S | FR | 6'0" | 170 | Daphne, AL |
| 28 | Steven Ranel II | S | FR | 6'1" | 205 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 34 | Jayden Reed | S | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Monroe, LA |
| 35 | Collin Jacob | S | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Loreauville, LA |
| 46 | Roderick Bingham | S | FR | 5'11" | 161 | Plaquemine, LA |
| 25 | Brek Schultz | PK | FR | 5'8" | 185 | Denham Springs, LA |
| 40 | Logan Klotz | PK | SR | 6'1" | 200 | — |
| 95 | Tony Sterner | PK | SR | 6'0" | 197 | Kingwood, TX |
| 49 | Mason Golding | P | FR | 6'2" | 180 | Perth |
| 48 | Jackson Villaume | LS | FR | 5'9" | 225 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 54 | Carson Kraft | LS | FR | 6'2" | 218 | Olathe, KS |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Louisiana is in year 6 under Michael Desormeaux, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 30th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 128th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 127th on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#30projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#128projected
- Defensefirst and second down#127projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#122projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.12#66
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.33 / 1.76
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 16.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 13.1%#117
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 7.3% / 5.8%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.07#76 | 0.81#3 | 0.21#119 |
| Defense | -0.19#31 | 0.34#109 | 0.88#128 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.3171st
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.1333rd
- Offense success rate48%66th
- Defense success rate allowed45%12th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs51%59th
- Offense success — passing downs45%88th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs48%25th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs39%12th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.476th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.169th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9836th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.276th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.154th
- Defense line yards allowed2.745th
- Offense highlight yards1.772nd
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.5066th
- Offense power success0.8880th
- Defense power success allowed0.6361st
- Offense stuff rate0.1938th
- Defense stuff rate0.2364th
Third down
- Third down conversion33%21st
- Third down distance faced7.526th
- Third down conversion allowed59%1st
- Third down distance forced6.110th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.0325th
- Net success rate — second half0.0445th
Drives
- Points per drive2.458th
- Points per drive allowed4.74th
- Average starting field position2738th
- Opponent starting field position3041st
- Available yards gained47%45th
- Available yards allowed78%4th
- Scoring opportunities per drive70%29th
- Scoring opportunities allowed78%58th
- Points per scoring opportunity4.488th
- Points allowed per opportunity6.02nd
- Three-and-out rate40%16th
- Three-and-outs forced0%7th
Roster
- Returning usage66%77th
- Returning EPA18976th
- Team talent composite59128th
- Recruiting class rank91.034th
- Recruiting class points18034th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Near-equal efficiency edge: 0.025 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 41.5%
- Expected, given the spots
- 55.2%
- Over expected
- -13.8
- Fourth down vs peers
- -25
- Fourth down vs the model
- -67
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Louisiana is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Louisiana in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 6-7 | 5-3 | 46% | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 10-4 | 7-2 | 71% | 9.6 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 6-7 | 3-5 | 46% | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 13-1 | 9-0 | 93% | 9.0 | +4.0 |
| 2020 | 10-1 | 7-1 | 91% | 7.1 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 11-3 | 7-2 | 79% | 10.8 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 7-7 | 5-4 | 50% | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 4.8 | +0.2 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 8.0-4.3. Wins the Sun Belt in 13%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 36%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
up 0.9 points since preseason.
- At 2 losses they are 1.5% where the average Sun Belt team is 2.1%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.20 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 1.6% of seasons, having won their league in 98% of those.
Louisiana’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk6at Louisiana Tech3.7
- wk7vs Troy2.6
- wk10vs South Alabama2.4
- wk5vs Arkansas State2.4
- wk12vs Coastal Carolina2.3
- wk4at Charlotte2.2
Who to root for
Games Louisiana is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk5Utah State over Boise State0.7
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.7
- wk9Texas State over Boise State0.6
- wk11UNLV over New Mexico0.6
- wk8Washington State over Boise State0.6
- wk6Fresno State over Boise State0.5
Sun Belt
West division · 0-0 in league play, projected 5.4-2.62 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Louisiana can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk6Louisiana at Louisiana Tech20.9
- wk7Troy at Louisiana15.3
- wk10South Alabama at Louisiana15.3
- wk5Arkansas State at Louisiana14.9
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
Louisiana is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Frisco Bowl18%
- New Mexico Bowl13%
- Cure Bowl11%
- Boca Raton Bowl8.1%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl7.3%
- New Orleans Bowl7.1%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 10 have sent Louisiana a player since 2010 — 31 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Louisiana's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.