#15Elijah Mitchell

RB·Louisiana·2020 2019 20183.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Elijah Mitchell is a 3-year Explosive Back for Louisiana. Elijah's 2018 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 152 plays — a above-average rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Elijah Mitchell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

977 Rush yards13 Rush TD145 Carries6.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

20 Receptions349 Rec yards3 Rec TD17.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency75
Volume57
Explosiveness74
Consistency61
Receiving63

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)75th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency61th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (75th percentile).
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.31 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 2.10 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Arkansas State (SP+ 1).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsGrambling	W49-17	—	7	34	4.9	0	—	—	—	0.18
3	@Mississippi State	L10-56	23.2	6	0	-0.2	0	1	24	0	-0.48
4	vsCoastal Carolina	L28-30	-17.2	5	43	8.6	1	—	—	—	0.39
5	@Alabama	L14-56	36.3	11	85	7.7	0	1	13	0	0.43
6	@Texas State	W42-27	-16.4	20	191	9.6	3	2	34	0	0.84
7	vsNew Mexico State	W66-38	-20.2	12	107	8.9	3	2	25	0	0.61
8	@App State	L17-27	11.9	10	37	3.7	0	2	47	1	0.18
9	vsArkansas State	W47-43	1.2	4	68	17.0	1	6	121	1	2.10
11	vsGeorgia State	W36-22	-20.4	19	136	7.2	1	1	16	0	0.32
12	vsSouth Alabama	W48-38	-17.7	12	104	8.7	3	2	23	0	0.91
13	@UL Monroe	W31-28	-10.9	16	61	3.8	0	2	39	1	-0.01
14	@App State	L19-30	11.9	17	85	5.0	0	—	—	—	0.05
1	vsTulane	L24-41	-3.5	6	26	4.3	1	1	7	0	0.43

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

19.8%

Passing plays

6.9%

Rushing plays

29.1%

Standard downs

22.4%

Passing downs

13.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.46
Passing downs: 0.64
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.46 / 0.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Louisiana	3.3	0.440	—	67.3
2019	Louisiana	2.9	0.330	-0.11	70.0
2020	Louisiana	2.7	0.360	+0.03	54.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.