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Maple Leafs at Jets
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Winnipeg Jets
1
FinalTV NHLN, SN·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-1. The Jets scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Maple Leafs led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 7:07 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 65% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 5.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were TOR 37, WPG 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 33 of 36 (.917), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G), 2. John Tavares (1 G), 3. Jack Campbell (25 saves, .962).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Campbell25 saves, .962

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR21011819437
WPGWPG1110609126

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    N. Ehlers(21)
    P. Stastny (14), P. Dubois (12)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:39
  2. TOR
    J. Thornton(4)
    J. Spezza (14), A. Brooks (1)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    4:04
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(17)
    J. Muzzin (17), N. Foligno (11)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    11:40

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(17)
    W. Nylander (21), R. Sandin (2)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    7:07

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(8)EN
    I. Mikheyev (10), J. Holl (15)
    wristxG 0.89win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    18:30

Penalties

TOR 20 PIM·WPG 22 PIM

1st

  • 13:02TORAlex Galchenyuk · Holdingdrawn by Neal Pionk2 min
  • 19:04WPGKyle Connor · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Sandin2 min

2nd

  • 5:48TORJake Muzzin · Interferencedrawn by Dylan DeMelo2 min
  • 5:48WPGDylan DeMelo · Embellishmentdrawn by Jake Muzzin2 min
  • 8:19WPGMathieu Perreault · Chargingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 11:29TORAlexander Kerfoot · High stickingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min
  • 19:07WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · Interferencedrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

3rd

  • 1:44WPGNikolaj Ehlers · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:06TORJoe Thornton · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 17:17TORJoe Thornton · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 17:17WPGNikolaj Ehlers · Slashingdrawn by Joe Thornton2 min
  • 17:17WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · Misconductdrawn by Wayne Simmonds10 min
  • 17:17TORWayne Simmonds · Misconductdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalTOR goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 2nd 7:07 — TOR 65% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.28P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.16M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.15N. Ehlers · Goal · xG 0.15K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.12M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.11M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.10N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.10M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.10M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.09P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.09M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.08J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.07T. Poolman · On goal · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.05L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.05K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.04N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.04P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.04P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.04L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.03N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.03T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.03J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.03D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.02A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.02L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.02L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.01N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.01M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.00D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.00M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG1 G · 2.2 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsWPG
5.53 G
All situations
1 G2.2
1.63 G
Even strength
1 G1.2
2.40 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR78%22%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.98 – 2.19

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsWPG
37
Shots on goal
26
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/4
Power play
0/3
20
Penalty minutes
22
18
Hits
28
11
Blocked shots
12
9
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
16M. MarnerR101+120.28100—23:33
44M. RiellyD000-120.13020—23:18
3J. HollD011+310.02130—21:48
8J. MuzzinD011+210.01422—21:26
34A. MatthewsC000+160.650004620:13
78T. BrodieD000-110.17100—19:03
91J. TavaresC101040.780206718:44
88W. NylanderR011061.17000—17:31
71N. FolignoL011+120.172102017:02
65I. MikheyevR011+110.46100—15:03
15A. KerfootC101+141.023021714:43
38R. SandinD011+210.13010—13:51
23T. DermottD000+100.01200—12:49
12A. GalchenyukC000-120.12102011:45
24W. SimmondsR000010.031010—11:16
77A. BrooksC011+100.0010010009:50
97J. ThorntonC101+110.03004009:05
19J. SpezzaC011+120.300007109:00
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(W)26251.9622.22+1.2260:00

Season series

TOR leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).