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Jets at Maple Leafs
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV TSN3, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Jets answered. The Jets led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Connor's goal at 17:42 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.4 to 2.4; shots on goal were WPG 23, TOR 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 79% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 36 of 39 (.923), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Neal Pionk (3 A), 2. Auston Matthews (2 G), 3. Andrew Copp (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    N. Pionk3 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    A. Copp1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG1621116423
TORTOR28018113339

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    Z. Hyman(8)
    T. Brodie (9)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:16
  2. WPG
    A. Copp(5)PPG
    N. Pionk (16), N. Ehlers (13)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    12:20
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(19)PPG
    M. Rielly (17), M. Marner (25)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    1-2
    17:44

2nd period

  1. WPG
    J. Morrissey(1)
    N. Pionk (17), M. Scheifele (23)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    12:45
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(12)
    N. Ehlers (14), A. Lowry (9)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +23 pts
    3-2
    17:42

3rd period

  1. WPG
    M. Appleton(7)
    A. Copp (12), N. Pionk (18)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +16 pts
    4-2
    7:53
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(20)
    J. Tavares (15), W. Nylander (11)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +7 pts
    4-3
    18:06

Penalties

WPG 4 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:00TORZach Bogosian · Holdingdrawn by Mason Appleton2 min
  • 10:27TORJake Muzzin · Hookingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 16:44WPGNeal Pionk · Hookingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

2nd

  • 9:35WPGNate Thompson · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalWPG goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Kyle Connor, 2nd 17:42 — WPG 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.24J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.21A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.17M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.16A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.15A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.15A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.13M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.13A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.12I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.11M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.11J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.10M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.10P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.09J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.08T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.06A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.06P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.06J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04I. Mikheyev · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.03I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.03J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.03I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.03T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.02J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.01T. Boyd · Missed · xG 0.01J. Thornton · Missed · xG 0.01
TOR3 G · 4.4 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsTOR
2.44 G
All situations
3 G4.4
1.93 G
Even strength
2 G3.3
0.51 G
Power play
1 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG21%79%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.32 – 4.29

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsTOR
23
Shots on goal
39
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
28
Hits
15
15
Blocked shots
4
14
Giveaways
11
7
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD101+220.12010—29:00
4N. PionkD033+230.05302—22:49
24D. ForbortD000-110.05550—21:25
3T. PoolmanD000000.04210—20:47
55M. ScheifeleC011010.121101120:22
25P. StastnyC000000.080103819:38
26B. WheelerR000020.46300—18:25
2D. DeMeloD000010.01220—17:51
81K. ConnorL101040.27000—17:32
13P. DuboisC000+120.251003617:02
9A. CoppC112+110.15210016:54
27N. EhlersL022020.48100—16:36
17A. LowryC011010.034005415:58
22M. AppletonC101+110.23020014:36
11N. ThompsonC000000.0020210008:30
23T. LewisC000010.0100010008:09
85M. PerreaultC000010.00200007:13
88N. BeaulieuD000-100.01010—04:15
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)39363.9234.38+1.3859:58

Season series

TOR leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).