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Maple Leafs at Jets
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Winnipeg Jets
3
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 12:58 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 67% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 2.8 to 2.6; shots on goal were TOR 33, WPG 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 34 of 37 (.919); Laurent Brossoit stopped 25 of 26 (.962). Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (2 G, 1 A), 2. Andrew Copp (1 G, 1 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    A. Copp1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR312110111533
WPGWPG21419014337

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(34)
    M. Marner (42)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    0:27
  2. TOR
    W. Simmonds(7)
    J. Tavares (27), J. Holl (14)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    1:18
  3. WPG
    M. Scheifele(18)
    A. Copp (21), M. Appleton (12)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    3:19
  4. WPG
    A. Copp(15)
    M. Appleton (13)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    2-2
    10:26
  5. TOR
    J. Spezza(10)
    J. Thornton (10), J. Muzzin (16)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    3-2
    11:59

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(15)
    A. Matthews (23)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +18 pts
    4-2
    12:58
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(22)
    B. Wheeler (23), M. Scheifele (36)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +17 pts
    4-3
    17:56

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(16)EN
    N. Foligno (10), A. Matthews (24)
    wristxG 0.96win prob +6 pts
    5-3
    19:54

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·WPG 2 PIM

1st

  • 18:59TORWayne Simmonds · Roughingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min

2nd

  • 8:16WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · Slashingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min

3rd

  • 7:29TORJoe Thornton · Interferencedrawn by Mathieu Perreault2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalTOR goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 2nd 12:58 — TOR 67% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.21K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.16B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.16A. Copp · Goal · xG 0.15P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.15B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.14B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.12P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.08M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.08P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.08K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.08P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.08P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.08K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.07M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.07P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.07K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.07M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.06M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.06P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.06K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.05M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.05J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.05N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.05M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.05N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.04N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.04K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.04D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.03P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.03K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.03K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.03J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.02T. Poolman · On goal · xG 0.01D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.01D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.01K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.01
WPG3 G · 2.8 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsWPG
2.64 G
All situations
3 G2.8
1.34 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR28%72%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.61 – 2.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsWPG
33
Shots on goal
37
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
20
Hits
29
17
Blocked shots
9
9
Giveaways
7
2
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. HollD011+120.03230—26:39
8J. MuzzinD011-140.06260—24:53
16M. MarnerR213+131.10000—21:03
34A. MatthewsC123+270.500106020:39
44M. RiellyD000+100.00100—20:17
78T. BrodieD000+200.00040—19:48
91J. TavaresC011050.191006317:25
71N. FolignoL011+110.06300—16:12
88W. NylanderR000020.08000—15:39
12A. GalchenyukC000-120.04000015:15
47P. EngvallL000020.16200—14:00
24W. SimmondsR101+120.12122—13:23
38R. SandinD000+100.05000—13:23
23T. DermottD000010.02200—13:00
15A. KerfootC000000.000101312:43
97J. ThorntonC011+100.00302011:48
19J. SpezzaC101+120.160004411:20
77A. BrooksC000+100.00300008:55
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(W)37343.9192.85-0.1559:38

Season series

TOR leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).