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Jets at Maple Leafs
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Final/OTTV TSN3, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-3 in overtime, Auston Matthews scoring at 0:59. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Jets led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 0:59 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.0 to 1.9; shots on goal were WPG 27, TOR 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 82% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 34 of 38 (.895); Frederik Andersen stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nikolaj Ehlers (2 G, 1 A), 3. William Nylander (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    N. Ehlers2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
WPGWPG181811001327
TORTOR01011421311438

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    N. Ehlers(12)
    P. Dubois (3)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    16:19

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(11)
    A. Matthews (14), T. Brodie (10)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    3:14
  2. WPG
    N. Ehlers(13)
    K. Connor (13)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +20 pts
    2-1
    10:50

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(11)
    J. Tavares (16), M. Rielly (18)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +28 pts
    2-2
    6:29
  2. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(4)
    A. Kerfoot (9), P. Engvall (4)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +34 pts
    2-3
    12:39
  3. WPG
    P. Stastny(8)
    N. Ehlers (15), N. Pionk (19)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +40 pts
    3-3
    17:34

Overtime

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(21)
    M. Rielly (19), M. Marner (26)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    0:59

Penalties

WPG 2 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

2nd

  • 13:48TORIlya Mikheyev · Slashingdrawn by Mathieu Perreault2 min
  • 15:01WPGAndrew Copp · Hookingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min

3rd

  • 7:30TORZach Bogosian · Holdingdrawn by Mason Appleton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalWPG goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, OT 0:59 — TOR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.24P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.23Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.22W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.17I. Mikheyev · Goal · xG 0.15Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.15A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.14W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.14W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.13M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.12M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.09J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.08J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.07J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.06P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.05J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.04A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 4.0 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsTOR
1.93 G
All situations
4 G4.0
1.63 G
Even strength
4 G3.5
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG18%82%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.88 – 3.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsTOR
27
Shots on goal
38
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
30
Hits
18
18
Blocked shots
6
8
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD000+150.19330—25:57
55M. ScheifeleC000010.071106322:56
4N. PionkD011-120.05920—22:14
3T. PoolmanD000000.00240—21:51
25P. StastnyC101040.450103821:07
24D. ForbortD000-130.08030—20:59
26B. WheelerR000+110.07000—20:54
81K. ConnorL011020.11010—17:48
27N. EhlersL213-120.23000—17:14
13P. DuboisC011-130.191103315:42
9A. CoppC000010.10112015:21
17A. LowryC000020.245004015:01
2D. DeMeloD000010.00200—14:30
22M. AppletonC000000.00100013:08
64L. StanleyD000000.03000—11:01
85M. PerreaultC000000.00110008:42
11N. ThompsonC000000.052005008:19
23T. LewisC000000.00200008:19
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(O)38344.8953.98-0.0260:53

Season series

TOR leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).