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Maple Leafs at Jets
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
Winnipeg Jets
1
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zach Hyman's goal at 10:47 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 60% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.9 to 1.2; shots on goal were TOR 26, WPG 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 26 of 27 (.963); Connor Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (2 A), 3. Josh Morrissey (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    J. Morrissey1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR2141705326
WPGWPG0611605127

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(24)
    Z. Hyman (12), M. Marner (32)
    backhandxG 0.29win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:40
  2. TOR
    Z. Hyman(12)
    A. Matthews (18), M. Marner (33)
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    10:47

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(6)SHG
    I. Mikheyev (6), M. Rielly (23)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +13 pts
    3-0
    16:40
  2. WPG
    J. Morrissey(2)PPG
    M. Scheifele (29), K. Connor (19)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +6 pts
    3-1
    17:15

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·WPG 10 PIM

1st

  • 7:29WPGMathieu Perreault · Slashingdrawn by Jason Spezza2 min
  • 10:47WPGserved by M. Perreault · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 13:53WPGBlake Wheeler · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 16:26TORPierre Engvall · High stickingdrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min

2nd

  • 13:15TORJake Muzzin · Slashingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 15:21TORTJ Brodie · High sticking double minordrawn by Paul Stastny4 min

3rd

  • 3:29WPGMathieu Perreault · Hookingdrawn by Alex Galchenyuk2 min
  • 19:49WPGPaul Stastny · Hookingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalTOR goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Zach Hyman, 1st 10:47 — TOR 60% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.14K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.13M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.11N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.09M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.09B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.08T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.06K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.06A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · Goal · xG 0.04M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.04M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.03K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.02M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.02T. Poolman · On goal · xG 0.02D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.02P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.02T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.01M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.01K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.00N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.00T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.00M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG1 G · 1.2 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsWPG
2.93 G
All situations
1 G1.2
2.02 G
Even strength
0 G0.6
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 67 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR74%26%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 1.19

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsWPG
26
Shots on goal
27
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/5
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
14
Hits
27
17
Blocked shots
11
16
Giveaways
6
5
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. HollD000000.00210—25:23
8J. MuzzinD000000.00522—23:56
16M. MarnerR022+210.00020—22:12
44M. RiellyD011+130.01010—20:46
78T. BrodieD000000.00034—20:11
34A. MatthewsC112+220.390205619:23
11Z. HymanL112+260.861105019:21
91J. TavaresC000010.690105718:09
88W. NylanderR000010.08000—16:18
12A. GalchenyukC000030.49220015:06
22Z. BogosianD000+310.15000—13:53
65I. MikheyevR011+120.05100—13:08
15A. KerfootC101+130.081103312:21
19J. SpezzaC000010.031002711:35
97J. ThorntonC000010.05000010:55
47P. EngvallL000000.001027510:49
24W. SimmondsR000010.01010—10:42
23T. DermottD000+200.00000—07:58
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(W)27261.9631.21+0.2160:00

Season series

TOR leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).