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Maple Leafs at Jets
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Winnipeg Jets
▸4
FinalTV NHLN, TVAS·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Jets answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Connor's goal at 4:21 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 52% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.4 to 2.7; shots on goal were TOR 36, WPG 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 0.5 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Kyle Connor (2 G), 2. Adam Lowry (1 A), 3. Ilya Mikheyev (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    K. Connor2 G
  2. ★★
    WPG
    A. Lowry1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    I. Mikheyev1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR110111015236
WPGWPG01021024424

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    P. Engvall(7)
    A. Galchenyuk (8), M. Rielly (30)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    7:15

2nd period

  1. WPG
    M. Appleton(12)
    D. Toninato (1), A. Lowry (14)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    1:13
  2. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(7)
    J. Muzzin (23), A. Kerfoot (15)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    5:25
  3. WPG
    K. Connor(25)
    M. Scheifele (41), B. Wheeler (30)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    13:52

3rd period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(26)
    B. Wheeler (31), M. Scheifele (42)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +26 pts
    2-3
    4:21
  2. WPG
    J. Harkins(1)EN
    T. Lewis (5), D. DeMelo (9)
    wristxG 0.92win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    19:08

Penalties

TOR 2 PIM·WPG 4 PIM

1st

  • 8:54TORMorgan Rielly · Holdingdrawn by Mathieu Perreault2 min

2nd

  • 16:23WPGTrevor Lewis · Trippingdrawn by Wayne Simmonds2 min
  • 19:26WPGBlake Wheeler · Hookingdrawn by Adam Brooks2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalTOR goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Kyle Connor, 3rd 4:21 — WPG 52% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Harkins · Goal · xG 0.92M. Appleton · Goal · xG 0.23A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.20K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.18K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.16M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.16J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.12D. Toninato · Missed · xG 0.12P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.12K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.09D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.09A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.09T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.09T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.08D. Toninato · On goal · xG 0.08M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.07N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.06T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.06K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.06K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.05P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.05N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.04L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.03D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.03J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.02J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.02J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.02L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.02T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.02D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.01N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01
WPG4 G · 3.4 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsWPG
2.72 G
All situations
3 G3.4
2.22 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR54%46%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.67 – 2.47

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsWPG
36
Shots on goal
24
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
16
Hits
27
5
Blocked shots
11
10
Giveaways
12
3
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011-310.05012—22:22
78T. BrodieD000-300.06000—21:02
34A. MatthewsC000-120.120105019:05
8J. MuzzinD011+130.11100—19:02
3J. HollD000+250.10310—18:01
55B. HuttonD000000.00200—17:52
23T. DermottD000010.05210—17:09
91J. TavaresC000-170.441005716:38
88W. NylanderR000-120.07000—16:22
71N. FolignoL000-110.05200—16:05
15A. KerfootC011-100.31000016:01
65I. MikheyevR101030.48000—15:58
47P. EngvallL101-230.201004015:04
77A. BrooksC000010.05200014:08
19J. SpezzaC000010.101108014:02
24W. SimmondsR000-120.23100—13:39
97J. ThorntonC000030.0600010013:18
12A. GalchenyukC011010.23000012:15
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(L)23203.8702.48-0.5259:44

Season series

TOR leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).