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Jets at Maple Leafs
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV TSN3, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Jets answered. The Jets led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikolaj Ehlers's goal at 5:34 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 75% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were WPG 24, TOR 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 31 of 33 (.939), 0.6 goals saved above expected; David Rittich stopped 16 of 17 (.941). Three stars: 1. Nikolaj Ehlers (2 G), 2. Mark Scheifele (1 G, 2 A), 3. Kyle Connor (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    N. Ehlers2 G
  2. ★★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    K. Connor2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG3801125524
TORTOR17111015233

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Galchenyuk(3)
    M. Marner (40), J. Tavares (24)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:41
  2. WPG
    N. Ehlers(19)PPG
    N. Pionk (25), P. Dubois (11)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +9 pts
    1-1
    10:45
  3. WPG
    K. Connor(20)
    M. Scheifele (34), N. Pionk (26)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    11:12
  4. WPG
    M. Scheifele(17)
    K. Connor (22)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    13:54

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(14)
    J. Spezza (13), N. Robertson (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    6:47

3rd period

  1. WPG
    N. Ehlers(20)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    5:34
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(21)EN
    P. Stastny (13), M. Scheifele (35)
    wristxG 0.50
    5-2
    19:23

Penalties

WPG 8 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:45WPGMason Appleton · Holdingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 7:34WPGDylan DeMelo · Cross checkingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 10:36TORZach Bogosian · Interferencedrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min

2nd

  • 15:08TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min
  • 20:00WPGPierre-Luc Dubois · Illegal check to headdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

3rd

  • 5:53WPGKyle Connor · Trippingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min
  • 18:16TORZach Hyman · High stickingdrawn by Neal Pionk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalWPG goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Nikolaj Ehlers, 3rd 5:34 — WPG 75% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.23J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.17Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.15J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.14A. Galchenyuk · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.11M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.10N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.07I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.07W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.06A. Brooks · On goal · xG 0.05P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.03W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.03J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.03A. Galchenyuk · Goal · xG 0.03W. Simmonds · Missed · xG 0.03W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.02W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.02P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.02N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01W. Simmonds · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.01W. Simmonds · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.01T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.00J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 2.6 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsTOR
2.34 G
All situations
2 G2.6
1.53 G
Even strength
2 G1.3
0.31 G
Power play
0 G1.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG35%65%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.75 – 2.52

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsTOR
24
Shots on goal
33
43%
Faceoffs
57%
2/3
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
32
Hits
15
15
Blocked shots
12
10
Giveaways
17
9
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24D. ForbortD000+320.04120—23:34
4N. PionkD022+320.12330—23:07
44J. MorrisseyD000-110.01040—20:22
3T. PoolmanD000-100.00900—19:26
55M. ScheifeleC123030.311004019:22
9A. CoppC000+110.201006719:17
2D. DeMeloD000-100.00212—19:04
81K. ConnorL213030.65002—17:40
25P. StastnyC011+120.420004315:27
27N. EhlersL202+140.20100—15:20
17A. LowryC000000.005003315:11
13P. DuboisC011000.00212014:44
14V. HeinolaD000-110.01120—12:34
23T. LewisC000020.17010012:28
22M. AppletonC000020.06102012:15
11N. ThompsonC000000.002006012:08
85M. PerreaultC000010.07210010:56
12J. HarkinsC000000.00100009:10
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)33312.9392.56+0.5659:55

Season series

TOR leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).