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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
5
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
FinalTV SN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 6-5. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 19:16 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 5.5 to 2.7; shots on goal were OTT 32, TOR 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 32 of 37 (.865); Jack Campbell stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (3 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 3 A), 3. Connor Brown (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Brown1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT010311211532
TORTOR21321629638

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(29)
    M. Marner (36)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:52
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(30)
    M. Marner (37), M. Rielly (24)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    9:31

2nd period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(13)
    T. Stützle (15), E. Brannstrom (4)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    12:02
  2. OTT
    A. Formenton(3)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.21win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    13:49
  3. OTT
    T. Stützle(7)
    M. Amadio (3)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +22 pts
    3-2
    16:25
  4. TOR
    M. Marner(14)
    A. Galchenyuk (4), A. Matthews (21)
    wristxG 0.54win prob +22 pts
    3-3
    16:52
  5. TOR
    A. Matthews(31)
    M. Marner (38), A. Galchenyuk (5)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +23 pts
    3-4
    19:16

3rd period

  1. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(6)
    Z. Hyman (16), T. Dermott (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    3-5
    4:44
  2. OTT
    C. Brown(13)
    E. Dadonov (5), C. Tierney (11)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    4-5
    7:43
  3. TOR
    Z. Hyman(14)EN
    J. Tavares (21), I. Mikheyev (8)
    wristxG 0.84win prob +5 pts
    4-6
    19:33
  4. OTT
    J. Norris(11)PPG
    D. Batherson (12)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +2 pts
    5-6
    19:43

Penalties

OTT 2 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

2nd

  • 1:24TORAlex Galchenyuk · Trippingdrawn by Evgenii Dadonov2 min
  • 13:39OTTThomas Chabot · Cross checkingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min

3rd

  • 19:38TORJoe Thornton · Hookingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 2nd 19:16 — TOR 53% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.84M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.54Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.36A. Galchenyuk · On goal · xG 0.33W. Simmonds · Missed · xG 0.25M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.25J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.24A. Galchenyuk · On goal · xG 0.24J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.18W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.15J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.12A. Galchenyuk · Missed · xG 0.12J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.11I. Mikheyev · Goal · xG 0.09I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.08A. Barabanov · Missed · xG 0.08W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.07W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07A. Galchenyuk · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.06J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.06W. Simmonds · Missed · xG 0.06J. Thornton · Missed · xG 0.05W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.05J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.04I. Mikheyev · Missed · xG 0.03T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR6 G · 5.5 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
2.75 G
All situations
5 G5.5
2.23 G
Even strength
5 G4.1
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT26%74%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.66 – 4.27

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
32
Shots on goal
38
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
24
Hits
16
13
Blocked shots
9
16
Giveaways
20
6
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000-330.08322—27:13
22N. ZaitsevD000-210.04000—20:53
2A. ZubD000010.02320—20:41
5M. ReillyD000020.02310—20:20
28C. BrownR101-230.25000—19:51
7B. TkachukL000-420.18300—19:33
13N. PaulL000-110.0021010019:15
9J. NorrisC101-410.160004718:58
18T. StützleC112+130.30100016:32
71C. TierneyC011000.080201415:39
63E. DadonovL011020.15000—15:10
19D. BathersonR112050.51300—14:47
26E. BrannstromD011+100.00020—14:07
29M. AmadioR011+110.192005313:48
44E. GudbransonD000+120.03220—13:40
62C. BishopC000000.002107510:16
10R. DzingelC000-110.18000009:51
59A. FormentonL101+140.48000—09:03
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)37325.8654.62-0.3858:23

Season series

TOR leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).