Skip to content
Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸7
FinalTV SNO, TSN5·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 7-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 6-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 19:37 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 69% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.3 to 2.7; shots on goal were OTT 37, TOR 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 20 of 26 (.769), 3.2 goals below expected; Michael Hutchinson stopped 34 of 37 (.919). Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (2 G, 2 A), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 3 A), 3. Joe Thornton (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Thornton1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11219116337
TORTOR31031417731

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(15)PPG
    M. Rielly (11), J. Thornton (4)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    10:29
  2. TOR
    J. Thornton(3)
    J. Muzzin (11), M. Marner (17)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    16:43
  3. OTT
    T. Stützle(5)
    C. Tierney (5)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    17:51
  4. TOR
    A. Matthews(16)
    M. Marner (18), J. Thornton (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    19:37

2nd period

  1. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(2)
    W. Nylander (9), A. Kerfoot (6)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    1:39
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(8)
    M. Rielly (12), A. Matthews (8)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +4 pts
    1-5
    3:45
  3. OTT
    C. Brown(4)
    M. Peca (1), M. Reilly (7)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +4 pts
    2-5
    7:37
  4. TOR
    W. Nylander(5)PPG
    J. Spezza (6), A. Matthews (9)
    wristxG 0.41win prob +3 pts
    2-6
    11:00

3rd period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(3)
    T. Stützle (4), D. Stepan (4)
    wristxG 0.03
    3-6
    11:11
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(6)
    M. Marner (19), A. Kerfoot (7)
    snapxG 0.06
    3-7
    16:53

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 4:03OTTErik Brannstrom · Hookingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 9:34OTTChristian Wolanin · Trippingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min

2nd

  • 5:21TORTravis Dermott · Interferencedrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 9:28OTTErik Brannstrom · Hookingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 18:30TORTJ Brodie · Trippingdrawn by Evgenii Dadonov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 1st 19:37 — TOR 69% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.41I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.21W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.17W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.15I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.15J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.14J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.13J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.13A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.12M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.11J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.11A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.10T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.09T. Boyd · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.08I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.08A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.07J. Thornton · Goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03N. Petan · Missed · xG 0.03T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.03T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02I. Mikheyev · Goal · xG 0.02M. Lehtonen · On goal · xG 0.01P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.01T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR7 G · 3.3 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
2.73 G
All situations
7 G3.3
2.33 G
Even strength
5 G2.3
0.40 G
Power play
2 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT42%58%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.71 – 3.19

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
37
Shots on goal
31
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/2
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
40
Hits
10
8
Blocked shots
14
14
Giveaways
18
3
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22N. ZaitsevD000020.15610—22:19
44E. GudbransonD000-120.06520—21:05
24C. WolaninD000-120.02012—19:30
2A. ZubD000-100.04100—18:22
28C. BrownR101+120.1800010018:09
5M. ReillyD011010.17300—17:50
13N. PaulL000020.343206017:18
26E. BrannstromD000-110.12004—17:18
9J. NorrisC000010.052004116:16
7B. TkachukL000020.0461010016:11
18T. StützleC112-240.36100015:32
63E. DadonovL000020.02300—15:19
36C. WhiteC000020.222002914:54
21D. StepanC011-150.091005514:43
16A. WatsonL000040.25200—14:16
19D. BathersonR101-230.22200—12:51
71C. TierneyC011-210.180103812:20
53M. PecaC011010.21300011:20
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(L)26206.7692.77-3.2348:00
1M. Hogberg541.8000.52-0.4812:00

Season series

TOR leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).