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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Ottawa Senators
▸4
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zach Hyman's goal at 11:38 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 19% to 33%. Expected goals were close — TOR 3.9, OTT 3.7; shots on goal were TOR 36, OTT 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 26 of 28 (.929); Joey Daccord stopped 33 of 36 (.917), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Drake Batherson (2 G), 2. Zach Hyman (2 G, 1 A), 3. Joey Daccord (33 saves, .917).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    D. Batherson2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    Z. Hyman2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    J. Daccord33 saves, .917

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR19012215336
OTTOTT21421304431

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(11)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:06
  2. OTT
    R. Dzingel(5)
    C. Bishop (1), M. Reilly (11)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    6:13
  3. TOR
    Z. Hyman(9)
    A. Matthews (15), M. Rielly (20)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    11:38

2nd period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(10)PPG
    T. Stützle (11), B. Tkachuk (10)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    5:00
  2. OTT
    D. Batherson(11)
    C. Wolanin (2), C. Tierney (8)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    5:53

3rd period

  1. TOR
    Z. Hyman(10)
    W. Nylander (12), J. Tavares (17)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +2 pts
    2-4
    14:40
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(9)
    Z. Hyman (9), M. Marner (28)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +6 pts
    3-4
    17:48

Penalties

TOR 21 PIM·OTT 7 PIM

1st

  • 6:41OTTAustin Watson · Fightingdrawn by Zach Bogosian5 min
  • 6:41TORZach Bogosian · Instigatordrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 6:41TORZach Bogosian · Fightingdrawn by Austin Watson5 min
  • 6:41TORZach Bogosian · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:00TORMitch Marner · Slashingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

2nd

  • 3:58TORZach Hyman · Boardingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 8:21OTTClark Bishop · Trippingdrawn by Travis Dermott2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Zach Hyman, 1st 11:38 — TOR 19% → 33%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.61C. Bishop · Missed · xG 0.24D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.20D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.15B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.15A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.14R. Dzingel · Goal · xG 0.14A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.13R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.13C. White · On goal · xG 0.13C. Bishop · On goal · xG 0.13C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.12T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.12T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.11C. Bishop · Missed · xG 0.10D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.10C. White · On goal · xG 0.10D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.09D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08C. White · Missed · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.07D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.06T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.03C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02C. Wolanin · On goal · xG 0.02C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.02T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01C. White · On goal · xG 0.00E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.00N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.00B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 3.7 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
3.93 G
All situations
4 G3.7
2.63 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
1.30 G
Power play
1 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR62%38%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.82 – 3.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
36
Shots on goal
31
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/1
Power play
1/3
21
Penalty minutes
7
15
Hits
31
9
Blocked shots
17
12
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011+240.35040—28:06
16M. MarnerR011+360.67122—25:45
34A. MatthewsC011+320.370005023:53
11Z. HymanL213+340.62002—22:40
91J. TavaresC112+150.811104522:32
78T. BrodieD000030.09110—21:07
8J. MuzzinD000-240.10110—20:14
3J. HollD000-210.02100—19:27
88W. NylanderR011+120.34000—18:33
23T. DermottD000000.00200—14:44
15A. KerfootC000000.0000010014:11
97J. ThorntonC000-100.00100012:28
65I. MikheyevR000-110.03300—11:42
47P. EngvallL000-110.010004010:38
19J. SpezzaC000-110.180008309:40
22Z. BogosianD000010.021017—08:26
72T. BoydC000-100.17100007:38
26J. VeseyL000-210.11200—07:21
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)28262.9292.31+0.3149:35
30M. Hutchinson312.3330.80-1.2006:13

Season series

TOR leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).