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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
1
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸2
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 2-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alexander Kerfoot's goal at 10:46 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were OTT 28, TOR 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Frederik Andersen (27 saves, .964), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G), 3. Brady Tkachuk (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    F. Andersen27 saves, .964
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT01011206128
TORTOR05113110228

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(14)
    J. Holl (6), J. Muzzin (9)
    slapxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    4:41
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(5)
    C. Tierney (4), J. Norris (7)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +21 pts
    1-1
    18:51

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(3)
    J. Thornton (3), J. Muzzin (10)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +30 pts
    1-2
    10:46

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

2nd

  • 8:08OTTserved by B. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 16:32TORTravis Dermott · Holdingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min

3rd

  • 2:47OTTErik Gudbranson · High stickingdrawn by Jason Spezza2 min
  • 4:11TORMitch Marner · Interferencedrawn by Mike Reilly2 min
  • 8:24OTTNikita Zaitsev · Hookingdrawn by Joe Thornton2 min
  • 12:22TORZach Hyman · Trippingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Alexander Kerfoot, 3rd 10:46 — TOR 53% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Kerfoot · Goal · xG 0.21A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.18J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.17W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.16J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.15A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.10T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.10P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.09P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.09M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.06J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.05J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.04I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR2 G · 2.8 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
2.51 G
All situations
2 G2.8
2.11 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT45%55%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.52 – 2.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
28
Shots on goal
28
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
30
Hits
13
5
Blocked shots
14
8
Giveaways
18
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000-110.02000—26:09
22N. ZaitsevD000-220.16002—22:32
44E. GudbransonD000+100.00502—19:05
28C. BrownR000-130.30110—18:11
13N. PaulL000-200.161003817:36
9J. NorrisC011+150.211005417:29
7B. TkachukL101+170.63300—17:26
36C. WhiteC000-110.231002017:09
5M. ReillyD000020.07400—16:52
18T. StützleC000020.27000016:27
63E. DadonovL000-110.04100—15:35
21D. StepanC000020.100105515:21
2A. ZubD000-100.00210—15:16
26E. BrannstromD000000.00400—14:18
19D. BathersonR000010.19300—13:44
71C. TierneyC011+110.131005713:08
51A. AnisimovC000000.00010010:11
16A. WatsonL000000.00310—09:13
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(L)28262.9292.78+0.7858:18

Season series

TOR leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).