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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸6
Toronto Maple Leafs
5
Final/OTTV TSN5, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-5 in overtime, Evgenii Dadonov scoring at 2:19. The Senators came back from 4 goals down. The Maple Leafs led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evgenii Dadonov's goal at 2:19 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.3 to 2.8; shots on goal were OTT 31, TOR 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Marcus Hogberg stopped 33 of 38 (.868), 0.7 goals below expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 25 of 31 (.806), 3.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Evgenii Dadonov (2 G), 2. Auston Matthews (2 G, 1 A), 3. Connor Brown (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    E. Dadonov2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Brown1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
OTTOTT1411531012631
TORTOR21331101202538

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(12)
    J. Thornton (2), M. Marner (16)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:32
  2. TOR
    T. Boyd(2)
    J. Spezza (5)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    10:29
  3. OTT
    D. Batherson(2)
    T. Stützle (3)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    12:40

2nd period

  1. TOR
    P. Engvall(1)
    A. Kerfoot (5), T. Brodie (5)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    1:49
  2. TOR
    J. Thornton(2)
    A. Matthews (7)
    deflectedxG 0.22win prob +7 pts
    1-4
    9:51
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(13)PPG
    M. Rielly (10), J. Tavares (10)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +2 pts
    1-5
    19:01
  4. OTT
    N. Paul(3)SHG
    A. Watson (4)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +2 pts
    2-5
    19:51

3rd period

  1. OTT
    A. Zub(1)
    C. Tierney (3), C. Brown (6)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +6 pts
    3-5
    0:41
  2. OTT
    C. Brown(3)
    C. White (4), T. Chabot (5)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    4-5
    5:52
  3. OTT
    E. Dadonov(5)
    B. Tkachuk (6), J. Norris (6)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +40 pts
    5-5
    17:59

Overtime

  1. OTT
    E. Dadonov(6)
    T. Chabot (6), N. Paul (5)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +51 pts
    6-5
    2:19

Penalties

OTT 9 PIM·TOR 11 PIM

2nd

  • 6:52TORJake Muzzin · Fightingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk5 min
  • 6:52OTTBrady Tkachuk · Fightingdrawn by Jake Muzzin5 min
  • 7:20TORZach Bogosian · Hookingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min
  • 17:24OTTConnor Brown · Interferencedrawn by Justin Holl2 min
  • 18:34OTTArtem Zub · Trippingdrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min

3rd

  • 1:49TORZach Hyman · High sticking double minordrawn by Thomas Chabot4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Evgenii Dadonov, OT 2:19 — OTT 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Thornton · Goal · xG 0.22J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.19W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.19W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.17A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.17A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.16M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.14M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.14M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.14A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.14J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.13T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.13M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.13T. Boyd · Goal · xG 0.13J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.10P. Engvall · Goal · xG 0.10J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.10M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.08T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.07J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.06I. Mikheyev · Missed · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.04J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.03J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.02T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.02T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.02T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 4.3 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
2.86 G
All situations
5 G4.3
2.35 G
Even strength
4 G3.6
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT27%73%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.75 – 4.27

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
31
Shots on goal
38
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/3
Power play
1/2
9
Penalty minutes
11
25
Hits
21
10
Blocked shots
17
6
Giveaways
18
9
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD022+210.08300—27:58
22N. ZaitsevD000+100.00220—22:42
44E. GudbransonD000020.06000—19:47
18T. StützleC011+130.12100019:41
21D. StepanC000+100.005206018:31
28C. BrownR112020.31002—18:25
5M. ReillyD000000.00310—18:15
13N. PaulL112+220.250003118:05
63E. DadonovL202+230.38010—17:46
7B. TkachukL011040.340053316:44
9J. NorrisC011+120.224008216:41
36C. WhiteC011+110.11100016:25
24C. WolaninD000-110.01010—15:46
19D. BathersonR101010.06110—14:44
71C. TierneyC011-120.240005012:37
2A. ZubD101+130.31322—12:14
51A. AnisimovC000-130.19000008:48
16A. WatsonL011-110.06200—08:43
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1M. Hogberg(W)38335.8684.33-0.6761:47

Season series

TOR leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).