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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Ottawa Senators
▸5
FinalTV TSN5, TSN4·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Senators answered. The Senators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Austin Watson's goal at 12:32 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 53% to 72%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.4, OTT 2.5; shots on goal were TOR 23, OTT 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 2.9 goals below expected; Matt Murray stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (1 G, 2 A), 2. Thomas Chabot (1 G), 3. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Chabot1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1811114323
OTTOTT163919524

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    Z. Hyman(1)PPG
    J. Tavares (3), W. Nylander (2)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    9:59
  2. OTT
    T. Chabot(1)PPG
    D. Batherson (1), J. Norris (1)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    19:16

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(1)
    J. Holl (2), I. Mikheyev (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +19 pts
    2-1
    9:15
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(1)
    N. Zaitsev (1), J. Norris (2)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    10:28
  3. OTT
    A. Watson(1)
    B. Coburn (1), N. Paul (1)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +20 pts
    2-3
    12:32
  4. OTT
    C. Tierney(1)
    N. Zaitsev (2), B. Tkachuk (1)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    15:03

3rd period

  1. OTT
    D. Stepan(1)
    B. Tkachuk (2), D. Batherson (2)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +5 pts
    2-5
    6:15
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(2)PPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +4 pts
    3-5
    7:07

Penalties

TOR 22 PIM·OTT 12 PIM

1st

  • 6:34OTTDerek Stepan · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 9:09OTTCedric Paquette · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 12:10TORTravis Dermott · Slashingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 17:48TORJoe Thornton · High stickingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 18:40TORserved by W. Nylander · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 16:42OTTThomas Chabot · High stickingdrawn by Joe Thornton2 min
  • 18:20TORJason Spezza · Trippingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min

3rd

  • 1:43OTTThomas Chabot · Holdingdrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min
  • 6:35OTTAustin Watson · Slashingdrawn by Ilya Mikheyev2 min
  • 15:04TORWilliam Nylander · High stickingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min
  • 19:36TORWayne Simmonds · Game misconduct10 min
  • 19:36OTTConnor Brown · Roughingdrawn by Jimmy Vesey2 min
  • 19:36TORJimmy Vesey · Roughingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Austin Watson, 2nd 12:32 — OTT 53% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.44D. Stepan · Goal · xG 0.19C. Tierney · Goal · xG 0.14B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.14D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.14A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.12T. Chabot · Goal · xG 0.11N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.11B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.08B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.08T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.07A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.07D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.06D. Stepan · Missed · xG 0.06C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.03D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.03E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.03D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.02C. Wolanin · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.02N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01C. Wolanin · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · Missed · xG 0.01D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01
OTT5 G · 2.5 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
2.43 G
All situations
5 G2.5
1.51 G
Even strength
4 G1.5
0.82 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR58%42%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.43 – 2.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
23
Shots on goal
24
55%
Faceoffs
45%
2/5
Power play
1/5
22
Penalty minutes
12
12
Hits
33
10
Blocked shots
19
6
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
16M. MarnerR000-100.2200010024:22
44M. RiellyD000-410.06010—23:22
34A. MatthewsC000-330.510104723:05
78T. BrodieD000-310.01000—21:44
3J. HollD011+110.02120—21:14
11Z. HymanL101020.4120010020:20
8J. MuzzinD000040.12200—19:40
97J. ThorntonC000-200.08112018:09
88W. NylanderR011000.00002—16:15
91J. TavaresC112040.481105715:57
15A. KerfootC101+140.240006214:49
65I. MikheyevR011+110.0311010014:40
23T. DermottD000+100.00032—12:59
22Z. BogosianD000-100.00200—11:51
26J. VeseyL000000.00102—11:25
24W. SimmondsR000-320.250010—10:03
19J. SpezzaC000-100.020025708:34
94A. BarabanovL000-100.00100—04:19
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)24195.7922.06-2.9457:20

Season series

TOR leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).