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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
Ottawa Senators
2
Final/OTTV TSN5, TSN4·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 3-2 in overtime, Justin Holl scoring at 4:42. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Justin Holl's goal at 4:42 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.7 to 3.2; shots on goal were TOR 41, OTT 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 38 of 41 (.927), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Justin Holl (1 G), 2. Jason Spezza (1 G), 3. Anton Forsberg (38 saves, .927).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Holl1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Spezza1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    A. Forsberg38 saves, .927

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR0121171814341
OTTOTT180161601231

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    C. Brown(7)SHG
    C. Tierney (9)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    18:53

2nd period

  1. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(5)
    T. Brodie (11), Z. Hyman (10)
    deflectedxG 0.11win prob +20 pts
    1-1
    14:40

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Spezza(8)
    A. Kerfoot (10)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +33 pts
    2-1
    10:41
  2. OTT
    A. Formenton(1)
    C. Bishop (3), R. Dzingel (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +36 pts
    2-2
    13:14

Overtime

  1. TOR
    J. Holl(2)
    M. Marner (29), A. Matthews (16)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    4:42

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:09OTTThomas Chabot · Slashingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 11:59TORJohn Tavares · Interferencedrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 14:46OTTConnor Brown · Hookingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min
  • 15:35TORAuston Matthews · Interferencedrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 17:13OTTThomas Chabot · Slashingdrawn by Ilya Mikheyev2 min

2nd

  • 17:54TORMorgan Rielly · Cross checkingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Justin Holl, OT 4:42 — TOR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.24J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.20E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.18J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.17C. Brown · Goal · xG 0.15R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.14J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.14J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.14A. Formenton · Goal · xG 0.13J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.11C. Bishop · On goal · xG 0.11J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.11B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.10J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.10C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.10E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.10T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.09T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.09E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08C. White · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.04B. Coburn · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.02C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.01A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 3.2 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
4.73 G
All situations
2 G3.2
4.23 G
Even strength
1 G2.3
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.20 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR70%30%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.61 – 3.19

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
41
Shots on goal
31
37%
Faceoffs
63%
0/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
15
Hits
29
9
Blocked shots
17
13
Giveaways
18
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000+130.38112—25:46
78T. BrodieD011010.10000—25:06
34A. MatthewsC011+130.751024024:43
16M. MarnerR011+170.74210—24:04
3J. HollD101+140.33120—20:36
8J. MuzzinD000010.05240—19:25
88W. NylanderR000-110.33000—19:18
91J. TavaresC000-140.600022018:25
24W. SimmondsR000010.04200—16:09
22Z. BogosianD000020.10100—15:08
11Z. HymanL011-120.590003314:41
23T. DermottD000010.03100—14:33
19J. SpezzaC101030.170006413:34
12A. GalchenyukC000030.15100012:41
15A. KerfootC011010.051103312:41
97J. ThorntonC000000.0000010011:43
65I. MikheyevR101+130.31100—10:40
47P. EngvallL000+110.001001808:53
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(W)31292.9353.20+1.2064:42

Season series

TOR leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).