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Oilers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
▸3
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Final/OTTV SN, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2 in overtime, Darnell Nurse scoring at 0:17. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Darnell Nurse's goal at 0:17 of overtime, which took the Oilers' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.8 to 1.7; shots on goal were EDM 23, TOR 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Michael Hutchinson stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mike Smith (29 saves, .935), 2. Darnell Nurse (1 G), 3. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    M. Smith29 saves, .935
  2. ★★
    EDM
    D. Nurse1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM16091711323
TORTOR2130701001231

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    J. Archibald(6)
    K. Russell (7), J. Khaira (6)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    6:15
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(13)
    Z. Hyman (11), J. Holl (11)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    7:59
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(23)
    M. Marner (31), J. Holl (12)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    11:08

3rd period

  1. EDM
    K. Turris(2)
    A. Larsson (5), R. Nugent-Hopkins (16)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    1:20

Overtime

  1. EDM
    D. Nurse(12)
    C. McDavid (42), L. Draisaitl (35)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    0:17

Penalties

EDM 2 PIM·TOR 2 PIM

2nd

  • 12:30EDMGaetan Haas · Holdingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 2:45TORWayne Simmonds · Cross checkingdrawn by Gaetan Haas2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalEDM goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Darnell Nurse, OT 0:17 — EDM 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.22I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.17A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.14A. Galchenyuk · On goal · xG 0.14M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.13I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.11A. Galchenyuk · Missed · xG 0.11A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.10M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.09J. Thornton · Missed · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.05P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.05P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.04J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.03A. Galchenyuk · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.03T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.01T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.01J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 2.8 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsTOR
1.73 G
All situations
2 G2.8
1.63 G
Even strength
2 G2.7
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM29%71%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.68 – 2.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsTOR
23
Shots on goal
31
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
33
Hits
22
8
Blocked shots
12
17
Giveaways
19
6
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. NurseD101040.24310—28:18
97C. McDavidC011020.111002723:06
29L. DraisaitlC011030.240003522:29
22T. BarrieD000-210.03000—22:13
4K. RussellD011+110.01140—20:34
74E. BearD000+120.04100—19:22
13J. PuljujarviR000-110.10200—18:27
6A. LarssonD011+110.01700—17:24
56K. YamamotoR000010.10200—16:39
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC011010.160103316:35
8K. TurrisC101010.203006015:00
16J. KhairaL011+110.015006213:09
14D. ShoreC000+120.27200012:10
44Z. KassianR000000.00200—11:47
15J. ArchibaldR101+110.13300—11:36
84W. LagessonD000010.01000—10:46
63T. EnnisR000000.03100—10:43
91G. HaasC000000.000226708:33
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41M. Smith(W)31292.9352.84+0.8460:17

Season series

TOR leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).