Maple Leafs at Oilers 4-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸4

Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV NHLN, CBC·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 15:50 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 61% to 77%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.5, EDM 2.5; shots on goal were TOR 29, EDM 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 30 of 30 (1.000), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jack Campbell (30 saves, 1.000), 3. John Tavares (2 A).

Three stars

★
M. Marner1 G, 1 A
★★
J. Campbell30 saves, 1.000
★★★
J. Tavares2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	29	113	17	429
EDM	010	011	09	030

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

W. Nylander(8)PPG
M. Marner (22), J. Tavares (12)
wristxG 0.08win prob +10 pts
1-0
14:37
M. Marner(10)
J. Tavares (13), J. Thornton (7)
snapxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
2-0
15:50

2nd period

J. Spezza(5)
J. Vesey (2), T. Brodie (6)
wristxG 0.03win prob +10 pts
3-0
11:15

3rd period

Z. Hyman(5)
P. Engvall (2), J. Muzzin (12)
snapxG 0.13
4-0
13:34

Penalties

0 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

14:13Kris Russell · Holdingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 1st 15:50 — TOR 61% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.5 xG · 46 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.5 xG · 34 att EDM

0 G · 2.5 xG · 46 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.54 G
All situations: 0 G2.5; 2.53 G
Even strength: 0 G2.5; 0.11 G
Power play: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

51%49%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 2.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 30; 52%
Faceoffs: 48%; 1/1
Power play: 0/0; 0
Penalty minutes: 2; 21
Hits: 41; 12
Blocked shots: 5; 11
Giveaways: 14; 9
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
44M. RiellyD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.34	2	3	—	24:15
8J. MuzzinD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	4	3	—	22:30
78T. BrodieD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	1	2	—	22:15
11Z. HymanL	1	0	1	+1	4	0.51	1	1	—	20:08
3J. HollD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.10	2	0	—	19:27
16M. MarnerR	1	1	2	+1	3	0.34	1	0	—	18:32
65I. MikheyevR	0	0	0	+1	2	0.14	1	1	—	18:26
47P. EngvallL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.10	2	0	36	18:13
91J. TavaresC	0	2	2	+1	5	0.38	1	0	72	18:07
97J. ThorntonC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	1	100	16:31
22Z. BogosianD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	1	—	16:02
23T. DermottD	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	2	0	—	15:07
88W. NylanderR	1	0	1	0	2	0.19	0	0	—	13:51
15A. KerfootC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	50	13:44
94A. BarabanovL	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	0	0	—	13:31
19J. SpezzaC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.03	1	0	36	11:54
72T. BoydC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.21	0	0	0	08:51
26J. VeseyL	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	—	08:36

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
36J. Campbell(W)	30	30	0	1.000	2.51	+2.51	60:00

Season series

TOR leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

Box score