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Oilers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
▸3
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
FinalTV NBCSN, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-1. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Leon Draisaitl's goal at 9:12 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 50% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 2.5 to 1.9; shots on goal were EDM 22, TOR 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Mikko Koskinen stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Mikko Koskinen (25 saves, .962), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G), 3. Leon Draisaitl (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    M. Koskinen25 saves, .962
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM1308211322
TORTOR0801216126

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    K. Yamamoto(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    10:42

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(2)
    Z. Hyman (2), T. Brodie (2)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +28 pts
    1-1
    6:44
  2. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(1)PPG
    J. Puljujarvi (1), R. Nugent-Hopkins (2)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +30 pts
    2-1
    9:12
  3. EDM
    J. Archibald(1)EN
    C. McDavid (3), D. Nurse (1)
    wristxG 0.53win prob +7 pts
    3-1
    18:54

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 15:24EDMDarnell Nurse · Holdingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

2nd

  • 7:42TORMitch Marner · Holdingdrawn by Darnell Nurse2 min
  • 12:55TORAlexander Kerfoot · High stickingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min
  • 17:35EDMConnor McDavid · Hookingdrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min

3rd

  • 7:31TORJake Muzzin · Trippingdrawn by Dominik Kahun2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalEDM goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl, 3rd 9:12 — EDM 50% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.19J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.15J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.13J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.11I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.10I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.06W. Simmonds · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.03T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.02I. Mikheyev · Missed · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR1 G · 1.9 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsTOR
2.52 G
All situations
1 G1.9
1.31 G
Even strength
1 G0.9
0.71 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 65 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM52%48%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 1.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsTOR
22
Shots on goal
26
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
25
Hits
20
19
Blocked shots
6
6
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
97C. McDavidC011040.410222922:38
25D. NurseD011000.06202—21:29
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC011-120.13010020:36
29L. DraisaitlC101+140.422105320:19
6A. LarssonD000+110.01150—19:50
20S. KoekkoekD000+120.06120—19:40
74E. BearD000010.03100—19:21
22T. BarrieD000010.02120—19:08
56K. YamamotoR101+100.21240—16:02
4K. RussellD000010.02000—15:21
15J. ArchibaldR101+120.55620—15:01
44Z. KassianR000-100.07200—14:44
8K. TurrisC000000.000007014:16
39A. ChiassonR000020.33000—14:08
21D. KahunC000+100.09200012:53
14D. ShoreC000+110.12300012:28
10J. NygardL000010.02000—09:04
13J. PuljujarviR011000.00200—09:02
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
19M. Koskinen(W)26251.9621.94+0.9460:00

Season series

TOR leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).